The beginning of the end of the dollar era?
The ramifications of an end to dollar-based oil trade would extend far beyond the oil market and would herald the beginning of a new international political order.
- Shebonti Ray Dadwal
- October 14, 2009
The ramifications of an end to dollar-based oil trade would extend far beyond the oil market and would herald the beginning of a new international political order.
In a conference on socio-economic development in Kamchatka Kray in 2008, Russian President Dmitry Medvedev said that if Russia does not step up the level of activity of its work in the Russian Far East (RFE), it may risk losing territory. The tone of his remarks was ‘unprecedented’ and reminiscent of former President Vladimir Putin’s even more direct and straightforward warning, who observed in 2000 that “if the authorities failed to develop the region, even the indigenous Russian population will mainly be speaking Japanese, Korean and Chinese in a few decades.”
Geopolitics has always had a global dimension even since the time of H.J. Mackinder. In the current context, understanding of a region like Central Asia would be incomplete without comprehending the global military and political transformations that are taking place.
Prime Minister Manmohan Singh is attending a slew of Russian hosted high profile meetings including those of the SCO and BRIC in Yekaterinburg which would be viewed keenly by most international watchers. The SCO, keenly nurtured by Russia and China as an exclusive nucleus, had hitherto excluded those with observer status from its core deliberations. The forum became popular as an embryonic counterpoise to the United States after 2005 when it bluntly issued a quit notice to the US from Central Asia and decided to salvage an assortment of autocrats being ostracized by the West.
It has been reported that Russia has demanded US $3.5 billion from India for the aircraft carrier, Gorshkov, which is currently undergoing repairs. This is the second time that Russia has sought a price increase from the original contracted amount of $1.5 billion. Given the hike in its price and the further delay in the date of delivery, the deal has naturally attracted comment, with some people even questioning the very wisdom of having gone for the ship.
President Bush will host the first ever financial summit of the G-20 on November 15, 2008 in Washington to discuss the current global financial crisis which threatens the economic and political stability through out the world. The crisis comes on the heels of an economic crisis in the global economy in the first half of 2008 which was characterised by a record level of oil prices, global food shortages, high inflation and rising inflation in most countries.
Georgia was a constituent republic of the former USSR. In 1991, the dissolution of the Soviet Union led to the independence of Georgia. In turn, the autonomous regions of Georgia, namely South Ossetia and Abkhazia, attempted to break away from Georgia, resulting in civil strife in the early Nineties. These conflicts were settled with Russian involvement with the United Nations Mission in Georgia deploying in a peacekeeping role in Abkhazia and a Russian peacekeeping force deploying under a Joint Control Commission in South Ossetia.
The Russian military blitzkrieg to counter the Georgian President Mikheil Saakashvili’s dispatch of his Israeli and US trained and equipped forces to retake the breakaway region of South Ossetia on August 7, 2008 took many by surprise. Moscow brazenly took the war straight into the Georgian heartland routing the Georgian forces in South Ossetia and expelling them from the other main Georgian separatist region of Abkhazia.
The Russia-Georgia conflict has caused several analysts to state that Moscow’s main goal was to ensure its energy dominance in the region. Though this may not be entirely correct – other Russian security interests were equally at play – energy issues did have a large role. Ever since Vladimir Putin took over the reins, he had time and again reiterated the importance of energy in Russia’s regional, and indeed its global, policy. It is well known that Moscow will not allow its supremacy to be compromised. Putin’s successor Dmitry Medvedev appears to be continuing with his mentor’s policy.