The New Great Instability: Afghanistan after the American Exit

The present paper discusses about the new great instability in Afghanistan which had emerged after 2001. It builds four scenarios by looking into the impending American withdrawal from Afghanistan and states that for President Obama, a stable and democratic government is most desirable but it would prefer to leave it after building a coalition government with local actors as the US is more worried about a stable government in Afghanistan, not necessarily a democratic one. It argues that with India-Pakistan peace process in doldrums, and no signs of internal political stability in Pakistan, an impending American exit from Afghanistan, have huge implications for India, especially in Jammu and Kashmir (J&K).

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