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Challenges before Thailand’s New Prime Minister

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Summary

Paetongtarn Shinawatra faces challenges in balancing diverse interests, navigating tensions between democratic forces and military-monarchy influences, and addressing the issues of economic and social inequalities. As the third Shinawatra family member to lead Thailand, she must balance reform with tradition while also facing legal challenges.

Introduction

Paetongtarn Shinawatra, daughter of former Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra, assumed office as Thailand’s youngest Prime Minister in August 2024, following a period of political upheaval. Her Pheu Thai Party formed a coalition government, controversially including factions linked to the military. As Prime Minister, she faces the challenge of balancing diverse interests and navigating Thailand’s complex political landscape, characterised by tensions between democratic forces and military-monarchy influences. Paetongtarn Shinawatra succeeded Srettha Thavisin, who was removed by a court ruling. Despite initial difficulties in forming a government, Pheu Thai eventually established a coalition, reflecting the ongoing political complexity in Thailand and the enduring influence of the Shinawatra family.

Paetongtarn is the third member of the Shinawatra family to lead the country. Her tenure will test both her leadership and her family’s political influence. The frequent ousting of Prime Ministers by the Constitutional Court and the recent dissolution of the Move Forward Party underscore the complex political landscape. The judiciary’s role in politics and the influence of the monarchy and military continue to pose significant obstacles to democratic progress. Historical factors such as military coups and constitutional amendments have contributed to this ongoing instability. The country’s ongoing separatist tensions further complicate the situation.

Political Dynamics and Leadership Change

Paetongtarn Shinawatra’s appointment was ceremonially endorsed by King Maha Vajiralongkorn in September 2024, marking a significant moment in Thailand’s contemporary political history. The 36-member cabinet, featuring 12 new appointees, is dominated by the Pheu Thai Party.1 In a parliamentary vote on 16 August, the Pheu Thai party secured nearly two-thirds of the votes (319 out of the 493 lawmakers in the Thai Parliament).

The current political shifts are deeply rooted in the results of the previous year’s general election and the underlying political dynamics of the country. The 2023 Thai general election, held on 14 May, brought about a notable shift in the country’s political landscape. The MFP, led by Pita Limjaroenrat, emerged victorious with 151 out of 500 seats in the House of Representatives, reflecting a strong call for change from Thai voters. The Pheu Thai Party, linked to the Shinawatra family and represented by Paetongtarn Shinawatra, secured the second position with 141 seats. The results indicated a waning influence of the military-aligned parties, such as Palang Pracharath and the United Thai Nation, which saw poor performance.

Despite its success, the MFP faced significant hurdles in forming a government, mainly due to opposition from conservative forces within the Senate. This led to a period of political uncertainty as the winning parties struggled to create a coalition that could gain the necessary approval from both the House of Representatives and the Senate. After initial attempts by the MFP to form a government were unsuccessful, the Pheu Thai Party stepped in, eventually creating a coalition government without the MFP. In August 2023, Srettha Thavisin from Pheu Thai was elected Prime Minister. To overcome the deadlock, Pheu Thai allied with pro-military parties, enabling Srettha to secure 482 out of 747 votes in the bicameral parliament, thus leading to his election as Prime Minister.

Paetongtarn took over from Srettha Thavisin following a ruling by Thailand’s Constitutional Court. The court found that Srettha had committed an ethical violation by appointing a minister with a criminal record. This court decision, reached by a narrow 5-4 vote, led to Srettha’s removal from office on 14 August, less than a year after he assumed office.

Interplay between Democracy, Judiciary, Military and Monarchy

Srettha Thavisin was the fourth Thai prime minister in 16 years to be ousted by the Constitutional Court, raising concerns about the stability of Thailand’s political system. The decision has sparked widespread debate, protests, and calls for reform, with many questioning the judiciary’s role in politics. In addition, a petition has been filed with the Election Commission to dissolve the Pheu Thai party, alleging that it allows Thaksin Shinawatra, an outsider, to control its activities, in violation of constitutional rules.2

In contrast to Yingluck Shinawatra, who made relatively few autonomous decisions during her leadership, Paetongtarn’s scope for independent action appears even more restricted, particularly given Thaksin’s own political indebtedness to the conservative elite for his autonomy.3 Consequently, it is improbable that Paetongtarn will engage with contentious issues such as Article 112 of the Thai Criminal Code (the lèse-majesté law), or initiate reforms targeting the monarchy, the military, or the judiciary.4 These matters lie at the core of Thailand’s current political challenges, as the monarchy, bolstered by state institutions including the judiciary, continues to exert considerable influence over the nation’s political landscape.

The military has also had a significant influence in the country’s political affairs. In 2006, Thaksin Shinawatra, who had ascended to the office of Prime Minister through a democratically conducted election in 2001, was removed from power by a military coup.5 Thaksin’s coalition party emerged victorious in the subsequent 2007 elections. In the 2011 general elections, Thaksin’s affiliated party, the ‘Pheu Thai’, once again secured a decisive victory with an overwhelming majority. Nevertheless, the campaigns opposing Thaksin persisted unabated.

In the context of prevailing instability, the then-Army Chief, Prayut Chan-o-cha, orchestrated a military coup in 2014 and subsequently assumed the position of Prime Minister.6 In 2017, the military regime introduced a new constitution that granted it the authority to appoint a 250-member Senate.7 This was followed by parliamentary elections in 2019, which were widely perceived as a means to facilitate the transition of power from military control to a democratically elected government. Prayut’s newly established pro-military party was declared the victor in this election. However, opposition parties raised concerns, alleging that the electoral process had been manipulated. Consequently, Prayut continued to hold power until the elections of May 2023.8

The historical relationship between the Thai military and the monarchy is characterised by a deep and enduring interconnection. Historically, the military has assumed a pivotal role in safeguarding the authority of the monarchy, while the monarchy, in turn, has leveraged its influence to bolster military rule on various occasions. This reciprocal alliance has culminated in a political system in Thailand where the military and the monarchy have collaborated to perpetuate their power and maintain their dominance.9 Consequently, there has been a persistent cycle of military coups, suspensions of democratic governance, and constitutional amendments designed to preserve military dominance and influence.10

Notwithstanding the persistent conflicts and efforts by various factions to sustain their hegemonic influence, during the 2023 election, the progressive democratic movement demonstrated considerable advancement. This shift signifies an intensifying demand for the establishment of a more democratic constitutional order and governance structure. In the May 2023 elections, the ‘Move Forward’ party secured the highest number of seats, obtaining 151, while the ‘Pheu Thai’ party won 141 seats. Concurrently, the ‘Bhumjithai’ party emerged as the third-largest party with 71 seats, whereas the ‘United Thai Nation’ party managed to secure only 36 seats.11

The results surprised many as the ‘Move Forward’ party, which advocates political reform, won the most seats (151 seats), while the ‘Pheu Thai’ party, long a major democratic party, came in second (with 141 seats).12 The outcome was a significant blow to the military-backed establishment, indicating a strong desire for change among the Thai public. However, the newly established government in 2023 was once again formed by a coalition of military-backed political parties.

MFP has been advocating for significant democratic reforms. On 7 August 2024, Thailand’s Constitutional Court dissolved the MFP and banned its executives from politics for 10 years. This move followed the dismissal of Ex-Prime Minister Srettha Thavisin. The MFP, Thailand’s most popular party, was dissolved for attempting to amend the lese majeste law, which critics say is used to suppress dissent. The MFP’s dissolution mirrors the fate of its predecessor, the Future Forward Party, which was also dissolved after gaining popularity for its progressive stance. The Thai Senate and Constitutional Court have been regarded by some observers as institutions aligned with the interests of the military leadership, potentially impacting democratic processes in the country.13

Challenges before Paetongtarn Shinawatra

Thailand’s youngest-ever Prime Minister, Shinawatra faces the daunting task of balancing the expectations of her party’s traditional supporters with the demands of military-aligned factions now allied with her government. Her leadership will be tested on multiple fronts, from implementing economic reforms to managing a coalition government amidst the persistent power struggle between democratic aspirations and military-monarchy influences.

Shinawatra is the daughter of former Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra (2001–2006), and niece of former Prime Minister Yingluck Shinawatra (2011–2014).14 Her ascent underscores the enduring political influence of the Shinawatra dynasty, despite its contentious legacy. Over the past two decades, Thailand has experienced deep political polarisation, with the Shinawatra family playing a central role in this division. Thaksin Shinawatra remains involved in legal battles over allegations of royal defamation,15 while the brief tenure of former Prime Minister Thavisin has underscored the limitations on the political influence of the Shinawatras.

Both Thaksin and his sister Yingluck have been highly polarising figures.16 They have garnered strong support from rural and working-class voters while facing resistance from royalist and military elites. This polarisation has led to significant unrest, including mass protests and military coups, positioning the Shinawatra name as a symbol of both reform and discord. As the new Prime Minister, Paetongtarn Shinawatra faces the challenge of navigating a complex political landscape marked by competing alliances and interests. She must balance the demands of the Pheu Thai Party’s traditional supporters with the necessity of cooperating with military-aligned factions now allied with her party.17

Paetongtarn Shinawatra may face challenges in advancing economic development, given the constraints of her current political position and the pressing demands of coalition management.18 Paetongtarn’s government introduced a 10-point urgent policy on 12 September 2024.19 Key elements include promoting debt restructuring, particularly for home and auto loans, and protecting the interests of Thai entrepreneurs from unfair competition, especially on online platforms. Additional measures focus on reducing utility prices, promoting mass transit systems, and collecting taxes from informal and underground businesses. The policy also introduces stimulus measures to relieve the expense burden and enhance career opportunities, encourages modern agriculture to increase income, and promotes tourism, among other initiatives.20

Paetongtarn also announced that part of the government’s 450 billion baht (US$ 13.1 billion) ‘digital wallet’ initiative will now be distributed in cash, marking a change to the original plan. Previously, the scheme proposed transferring 10,000 baht (US$ 292) in credit to 50 million citizens via a smartphone app, but it remains unclear how much will now be given in cash. The scheme in question was previously announced by the former Prime Minister, Srettha Thavisin.21 The purpose behind this initiative is to stimulate the economy, which has been sluggish since the COVID-19 pandemic and to increase money circulation, ease the cost of living and support economic growth.22 Critics argue that the programme could strain the national budget and increase inflation. There are also doubts about the stimulus’s effectiveness and complications in its implementation, including adjustments for those lacking digital access.23

Moreover, Thailand’s economy seems vulnerable due to its heavy dependence on tourism, exports and agriculture—sectors hit hard by global economic changes.24 Tourism, which accounted for approximately 11.5 per cent of Thailand’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in 2019, underwent a sharp decline to a mere 1 per cent of GDP in 2021.25 This contraction was predominantly a consequence of the COVID-19 pandemic and the resultant global travel restrictions. By 2022, the direct contribution of the tourism sector to the national GDP demonstrated a modest recovery, increasing to about 2.78 per cent. Despite this gradual resurgence and further recovery in 2023, with the sector contributing 11.6 per cent to the GDP,26 largely driven by a rebound in international tourist arrivals, the industry continues to confront substantial challenges.

Thailand’s export sector is presently contending with profound challenges, predominantly stemming from disruptions in global supply chains and diminished international demand. A confluence of geopolitical tensions and environmental factors, such as disruptions in the Red Sea and drought conditions affecting the Panama Canal, have exerted severe pressure on supply chain operations.27 Thailand’s manufacturing exports declined by 4.9 per cent in the first half of 2023, with electronics exports were down by 7.1 per cent and exports of petroleum related products fell by 19.7 per cent.28 Furthermore, elevated inflation rates, fueled by surging energy and food prices, have escalated production and transportation costs, thereby undermining the competitiveness of Thai exports in the international market.29

To achieve sustainable recovery and growth, Paetongtarn must confront income inequality, poverty and regional disparities. Although the country enjoys relative prosperity compared to its Southeast Asian counterparts, wealth remains disproportionately concentrated in urban centres such as Bangkok, leaving rural areas significantly underserved.30

Several legal challenges, meanwhile, have been lodged against Paetongtarn and her party. One allegation contends that the party has inappropriately allowed Thaksin to exert control despite his lack of an official leadership role. Another petition calls for an investigation into potential corruption by the new Thai leader. The new Thai leader pledged to establish a special team to handle legal complaints against her.31 Thailand’s new government could be besieged by court proceedings of one kind or another, raising doubts about its ability to implement its agenda effectively.

Conclusion

The monarchy and military establishment in Thailand have consistently advocated for maintaining the status quo, seeking to preserve their hegemonic structure. Although democratic forces have challenged this framework, their efforts have faced significant obstacles. The results of the most recent election dealt a considerable setback to political parties aligned with the military. However, the constitutional structure has effectively marginalised the role of the most popular party within the political system. Consequently, the established hegemonic order has prevailed, with the current government relying, to a great extent, on the support of military-backed political parties. The judiciary has emerged as another key player in perpetuating this status quo, often denying recourse to democratic political parties. In this context, the future of Paetongtarn Shinawatra’s government appears beset with challenges.

Views expressed are of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of the Manohar Parrikar IDSA or of the Government of India.

Keywords: Indonesia
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