Manohar Parrikar Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses
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South Sudan: A Year Old and ‘A Global Problem Child’

Keerthi Sampath Kumar
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Commentary

The Sudan of the last century was a land ridden by inter-tribal conflicts and civil wars, divided on religious lines and its politics was embroiled in a constant struggle for control over the country’s resources. Today, nothing much has changed except for the secession of South Sudan from Sudan and the discord continues across the border. After decades of civil war what is now observable is that the two Sudans are at the tipping point of an international armed conflict. Though some analysts rule out a full-fledged war between the two countries owing to the international attention the conflict has garnered, lasting peace is still a distant dream. Before elaborating on the contentious issues between the two countries, let us look at the internal challenges that South Sudan, the world’s newest country has to cope with.

The Woes of South Sudan: One Year After Independence

For a country that is still in the nascent stages of development, South Sudan is facing a multitude of problems. A major threat to state-building is corruption that permeates all levels of governance. In an economy that is underdeveloped and fragile, the Salva Kiir government is steeped in corruption. According to a recent South Sudan’s Auditor-General’s report, over $1 billion of oil revenues were unaccounted for between 2005 and 2006. There are also allegations that millions of dollars were smuggled out of South Sudan in bags to unreported destinations. In a move to fight this menace, President Kiir addressed a letter to 75 current and former senior government staff in May 2012, demanding the return of $4 billion that was stolen from the state coffers. However, critics are of the view that Kiir’s rhetoric has not been backed by action, for instance, the South Sudan Anti-Corruption Commission has not been granted the power to prosecute officials suspected of corruption12 and Salva Kiir himself is accused of embezzling funds intended for development.

Due to the prolonged neglect of southern Sudan by the Khartoum government and close to zero investment in the region, the infrastructure and development of the country has been restricted to the capital city of Juba. Furthermore, the lack of proper administration makes the task of statebuilding complicated. Poor infrastructure has also meant the dependence of the south, especially the border areas, on the north for supplies. But given the volatility of the regions surrounding the border and the blockade of most roads that lead to the north, the south finds itself in a dire situation

To add to its existing woes, South Sudan shut down its oil production (around 350,000 barrels per day) earlier this year, after talks with Sudan on fees for the export of oil broke down. South Sudan being a landlocked nation could export only through Sudan’s territories. Oil export is the only source of foreign currency and accounts for 98 per cent of South Sudan’s revenue. But with the shut down, the country is on the way to collapse.2 The annual inflation shot up to nearly 80 per cent in May and though there is no lack of food, the economic crisis has led to food insecurity amongst a vast majority of the population. It is also ominously forecast that even if South Sudan takes the drastic measure of cutting monthly expenditure by 77 per cent, the current oil reserves will last only till December 2013. The population living in poverty is predicted to rise from the current 51 per cent to 83 per cent in 2013. Over the same period, the under-five child mortality will double to 20 per cent and school enrolment is likely to drop from 50 per cent to 20 per cent. 3 Another major problem confronting the world’s newest nation is the increasing influx of refugees. Every day, on an average, 4000 Sudanese refugees arrive in Upper Nile State from Blue Nile state and the border provinces of South Sudan currently host around 160,000 people who arrive in extremely poor conditions. 4 Owing to the insecurity in the province of Northern Bahr El Ghazal, access to people in need is restricted and the security situation remains volatile with over 3000 people displaced in this region.

The country is also mired in inter-tribal clashes. The repeated deadly clashes between the Lou Nuer and Murle communities over cattle and grazing lands in the state of Jonglei displaced thousands of civilians. The border regions between Sudan and South Sudan that are rich in resources are not only battlegrounds for the two nations but also a matter of dispute among the tribes. Given the sophistication and quantity of weaponry used in these clashes, the government is burdened with the additional task of disarming, demobilising and reintegrating the former rebels across the country.

South Sudan – Sudan: Unresolved Issues

Compounding the problems of South Sudan are the ceaseless hostilities between the two Sudans. Three contentious issues that are yet to be resolved include the border dispute over Abyei, South Kordofan and Blue Nile (shown in map); division of oil revenues and the issue of citizenship. These problems began to crop up even before South Sudan became independent. Constant tension and distrust between the two countries manifested as violence in the border regions of Abyei, South Kordofan and Blue Nile in Sudan and in Jonglei, Unity and Upper Nile provinces of South Sudan.

Issues that were delineated in the Comprehensive Peace Agreement (CPA) of 2005 remain unresolved. The disputed region of Abyei (in South Kordofan) was seized by al- Bashir’s Sudan Armed Forces in May, 2011 which resulted in the displacement of thousands of people in the region. Though hostilities ceased after an agreement was signed between the two countries, the violence soon spread across South Kordofan and neighbouring Blue Nile state, thus posing massive threats to human life and security in both the countries. Thus far, both countries have not been able to agree on a quid pro quo.

When South Sudan shut down its oil production, it also cut itself off from 70 per cent of the food supplies that came from Sudan. Despite the signing of a non-aggression pact between the two countries, disagreements over oil fields continue. When South Sudan seized Heglig in March 2012, Sudan branded it as its ‘enemy’ and the two countries came almost to the point of a war. South Sudan released a new map this May proclaiming that the Heglig oil fields (which were previously considered undisputedly within Sudan and central to its economy) were part of its territory. Khartoum has accused Juba of stoking tensions by making these claims. Both sides accuse the other of supporting rebels, the government of Sudan has accused South Sudan of supporting the Sudan People’s Liberation Army-North and fuelling the fighting while Salva Kiir’s government has arraigned Sudan for supporting insurgent groups in South Sudan. Incursions from both sides into each other’s territory have led to heightened tensions between both the parties. Thus far, resolution of the dispute over oil resources remains elusive. And lastly, the issue of allotment of citizenship is yet to be settled. The north revoked the citizenship of the southerners and denied them jobs. South Sudan is still in the process of conferring citizenship rights to its people and the future of these Sudanese remains uncertain. Though in mid-March this year the Four Freedoms Agreement56 was signed, progress has not been made on the ground. Soon after, South Sudan captured the Heglig oil fields and since then the peace talks have deteriorated.

Recent Developments

The African Union (AU) proposed a roadmap67 to ease the current tensions and set a time frame for negotiations on outstanding issues. The United Nations (UN) too through UN Security Council resolution 2046 threatened to take ‘appropriate measures’ if both the parties did not resume negotiations. Due to international pressure, over the last few days, the security situation in Abyei has improved with the withdrawal of Sudan and South Sudan security forces. Violence too has been reduced in the border areas. However, both the countries have failed to honour prior agreements including the CPA and this demonstrates a lack of trust between both parties. It is also contended that keeping the feud alive between the two countries allows the governments to ignore domestic problems.7

Moreover, repeated efforts by the UN and AU to bring the parties to the negotiating table and enable agreement on the unresolved issues have been in vain. The latest AU effort to broker peace between the two countries, the first direct talks to take place since the border clashes, has also failed. The talks that spanned ten days in the first half of June saw no agreement on any of the issues. They were unable to agree on where to have a demilitarised buffer zone along the 1,800kmlong border (because each party came up with a different map) nor did the talks on future status of Abyei see any progress. The two Sudans are still at loggerheads on the issue of oil payments. Given the interminable nature of the conflict between the two countries, a sense of ‘Sudan fatigue’ is setting in the international community. At the moment, despite external help not much progress has been made due to the intractable positions of either side. However, on the brighter side, talks between the two countries have resumed under the auspices of the African Union High-Level Implementation Panel and it is crucial that at this stage neither the UN nor the AU should discontinue their efforts to broker peace between the two Sudans.

Keywords: Sudan
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