Modeling Attribution of Cyber Attacks Using Bayesian Belief Networks

The article makes an attempt to bring to the fore the various factors which are considered in the due process of attribution of a cyber-attack and the correlation of credible attribution with cyber deterrence. The focal point of the article is a three-step approach to model the decision-making process behind attribution of cyber-attacks using Bayesian Belief Networks and a case study to elucidate on the functioning of the model. Bayesian Belief Networks represent relationships between variables or multiple events and they are used to draw inference or estimate the probability to help decision-making under the conditions of uncertainty.