Manohar Parrikar Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses
मनोहर पर्रिकर रक्षा अध्ययन एवं विश्लेषण संस्थान

Libya: A Case of Revolution Gone Awry?

Rajeev Agarwal
He worked at Manohar Parrikar Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses from 2020 to 2024 . read more
Country Profile

Introduction

The winds of ‘Arab Spring’ protests engulfed Libya along with other countries in the region including Tunisia and Egypt in early 2011. While the dictators in Tunisia and Egypt were forced out soon, Libya under Gaddafi stood firm and undertook mass reprisals against its own protesting population leading to international outrage, UN Security Council sanctions and an international military campaign to protect its population. Even the Arab League came on board to impose sanctions and authorise military action. Gaddafi was ousted after a bloody battle and finally killed in October 2011 bringing a brutal regime to an end. But, more than two years after the revolution and a year after successful elections, Libya still seems far from finding the perfect solution for governing this vast North African country.

Concerns regarding the new form of government, the new constitution, economic revival, reining in the uncontrolled armed groups and above all, finding an all inclusive solution for the country, remain. Rather, with every passing day, fissures within the government and society groups seem to be widening. In such a situation one ponders whether the Libyan revolution has lost focus and is leading the country adrift. As past experience in Iraq and Afghanistan has shown, it is easier to overthrow a tyrant regime but very difficult to bring about stability. Also, long standing dictatorial regimes, when overthrown, leave a vacuum of political institutions which are difficult to build or revive in the immediate aftermath leading to periods of uncertainty, chaos and even civil war.

Vast oil resources have made Libya economically rich and attractive for foreign investment. But the total lack of government structures during the four decades of Gaddafi rule, its vast geographical expanse that virtually divides the country into three distinct regions, the pronounced economic disparity within the three regions and the presence of uncontrolled armed militia make Libya a difficult nation to govern. This brief attempts to examine major issues facing Libya and its path to recovery in post Gaddafi era.

The Challenge of Geography and Tribal Dynamics

 

Libya has an estimated 140 tribes, only about 30 of which are viewed as having any real significance. These live in the three prominent geographical zones. These are Tripolitania, site of the capital city Tripoli on the Mediterranean coast in north-western Libya; Cyrenaica, in Eastern Libya, which touches the Mediterranean but also extends into the Sahara and serves as home to Benghazi (the alternate capital during the revolution); and Fezzan, the only region located entirely in the desert.

Tripolitania is more oriented towards the western Islamic world and the ‘Maghreb’ while Cyrenaica has long been oriented toward Egypt and the eastern Islamic world. Much of Libya’s oil and natural gas resources lie within the region of Cyrenaica but the revenues have long been utilised by the rulers in Tripolitania leading to regional disparity and discontent. Cyrenaica where the uprising began is a region that Gaddafi or any government in Tripolitania have always struggled to control. This is mainly due to its geography, as a vast stretch of desert and the Gulf of Sidra separate the regions. A very small percentage of the Libyan population lives in the region of Fezzan. The desert simply does not allow a large population to develop. Further, Libya’s tribal groups are divided into two overarching categories: the coastal tribes residing mostly in Tripolitania and Cyrenaica, and the interior tribes which mostly live in Fezzan. Most of the populace in Libya falls into the first category. While the Libyan people are almost entirely Muslim and predominantly Arab, there are several divisions among them. These include ethnic differences in the form of Berbers in the Nafusa Mountains; the Tuaregs in the south western desert region of Fezzan; and the Toubou in the Cyrenaican portion of the Sahara desert.

These contrasting and often conflicting geographical and tribal identities and interests have been the biggest problems confronting the Libyan rebels as they made the transition from rebels to rulers – the most prominent of these fault lines being the one that exist between the regions of Tripolitania and Cyrenaica. Vastly different geographical regions coupled with complex tribal dynamics are thus obstructing Libya’s march to peace and political stability.

Political Instability- The Root Cause

 

One of the other primary reasons for Libya’s instability has been its failure to find a suitable political governance model. The unity of the rebels was based upon the common desire to oust Gaddafi. Post Gaddafi, the rebels lack this unifying factor and the alliances are fracturing as individual/tribal interests surface in the absence of a common goal/enemy. Each group feels that it is entitled to a certain degree of political authority, economic reward and power in the new Libya. Those who manned the front lines of Brega were the closest geographically to both Benghazi and the bulk of Libya’s oil fields and look upon themselves as the leaders of the revolution. Rebels who fought in Misurata too seek recognition. The Berbers in the Nafusa mountains as well as the Arab rebels in Zawiya and Zabrata are looking for rewards. There is then strong mistrust and suspicion between Tripoli and Bengazi who would not like the other to dominate the national political spectrum.

NTC and GNC

 

The National Transitional Council (NTC) was formed early in the revolution by the former Libyan justice minister, Mustafa Abdel-Jalil, who defected from the government on 21 Feb, 2011 and declared the establishment of a “transitional government”. He was joined by others like former interior minister Gen. Abdel Fattah Younis, and the NTC officially came into being on 06 March 2011. The NTC governed Libya for a period of ten months after the end of the war, and held elections to the General National Congress (GNC) on 7 July 2012. The liberal coalition under the National Forces Alliance (NFA), led by interim Prime Minister Mahmoud Jibril won 39 out of the 80 seats reserved for political parties. Mustafa AG Abushagur was elected prime minister on 13 September, but he was soon voted out by the Parliament1 sparking off a crisis. The GNC thereafter elected and accepted Ali Zeidan as prime minister, and the formation of the new government was completed on 31 October 2012. However, the government led by Zeiden has been far from stable. It is beset with deep divisions within the 200 members who come from very different backgrounds, and most of whom have never been exposed to democratic politics. Moreover, the distribution of seats sowed the seeds of discontent. The oil rich region of Cyrenaica has only 60 seats as compared to the 100 seats allocated to the western region of Tripolitania with the South making up the balance 40 sets. The composition of the GNC too is tricky. The majority of members do not belong to supposed liberal bloc of Mahmoud Jibril’s NFA. The NFA could muster the required 80 seats only by coordinating with other blocs. Far from delivering stable governance, the interim government under GNC has fail to deliver on its primary task; that of drafting a new constitution for the country. The Political Isolation Law passed by GNC on 05 May 201322 has further deepened the divide in the government. It bars anyone who held a senior position under Gaddafi from being a part of the government. Following this, the president of the GNC resigned making way for the election of Nouri Abusahmain, from minority Berber tribe on 25 June 2013. There have been calls for the resignation of the Prime Minister Zidan too, as he was a diplomat under Gaddafi government before he defected in 1980.

The New Constitution

As stated earlier, one of the primary tasks of the GNC was to draft a new constitution. However, far from drafting the constitution, GNC has not been even able to decide on the formation of the committee to draft the constitution. Libyans are frustrated and say this is hindering the political process from moving forward as also from disbanding and controlling the armed militia. One of the biggest disagreements is whether the 60 member drafting committee should be elected or appointed by the country’s new parliament, the General National Congress. There is also, lack of agreement on how to make the process inclusive to ensure that Libya’s three regions and women have equal opportunities.

There has been some forward movement when the GNC finally issued a constitutional amendment on 10 April 20133 declaring that the 60 member Constitution Drafting Committee would be directly elected by the people. However the method of selection remains to be finalised. The challenge of representing all of Libya in the constituent assembly is huge. Regional tensions, equal representation for the provinces, representation of ethnic and linguistic groups as well as women remains critical. To make matters more complicated, GNC has appointed a committee to draft an election law which will lay down the rules and parameters for election to the constituent assembly. The committee has 18 members4 , divided among the country’s three regions: three GNC members (one each from east, west, and south), plus 15 non-GNC experts. Although it was to complete its task by 20 May, 2013, the report is still awaited.

The delay is increasing the pressure on GNC and calls for dissolution of the government and holding of fresh elections are becoming more insistent. Clearly, the political process remains a huge challenge for Libya.

Rise of Armed Militia

Security has remained one of the major challenges for the interim government in Libya. The attack on US Consulate in Benghazi killing the US ambassador5 on 11 September 2012 and nationwide anti US riots following an anti Islamic film only highlighted the fragile situation in the country. Hundreds of armed militias that fought against Gaddafi’s repressive regime now pose the greatest security threat in Libya.

The NTC, in an effort to rein them in had included some of them in the government post July 2011. In the east of the country, Benghazi has several militias which were placed under the ministry of defence’s control. “The Martyrs of the 17 February Brigade” are considered to be the biggest and best armed militia in eastern Libya. The Martyr Rafallah Shahati battalions named after one of the first Libyans to die while fighting Gaddafi’s forces in March 2011 in Benghazi took part in securing the national elections and other ministry of defence operations in eastern Libya. The Libya Shield Force grouping of militias appears to be the most widely-deployed across Libya and also reports to the Libyan defence ministry. In the West, the Al-Zintan Revolutionaries’ Military Council is best known for detaining Saif al-Islam Gaddafi after his capture in November 2011. One of its leaders, Osama al-Juwali, is now the Libyan defence minister. Similar is the case of other militia groups like Sadun al-Suwayli Brigade, Al-Sawaiq Brigade, Al-Qaqa Brigade etc.

However post the attack outside the headquarters of the First Brigade of the Libya Shield forces (Deraa 1) in the Sidi Khalifa district in eastern Benghazi on 09 June 20136 , the GNC has decided not only to disband all militia brigades supporting the government but also all militia groups . This move could well backfire as these militias could then run their own writ in their respective areas. The Libyan police and army cannot match the firepower and numbers of these militias. A clear example of this was when the heavily armed private militias, surrounded the foreign and justice ministry offices in Tripoli on 29-30 April demanding passing of a law banning Gaddafi era officials from holding office in current government. The GNC virtually capitulated to their coercion, and passed the Political Isolation Law on 05 May.

The attack on French Embassy on 23 May , violence in Tripoli and Bengazi in May (After passing of Political Isolation Law), a car bomb explosion near a hospital in Benghazi on 13 May and other incidents of continued unrest prompted Britain to announce the reduction of its diplomatic staff in Tripoli in May which was soon followed by the US. In fact, the US even alerted two elite military units in Europe to be on standby to respond to the deteriorating security situation in Tripoli. This situation provided space and opportunity to extremist groups such as Ansar alSharia, which attacked the US Consulate in Benghazi to operate with impunity. It has also facilitated the spread of weapons and militants from and through Libya, which was seen in the Mali crisis, the discovery and capture of weapons in Sinai Desert across Egypt-Israel border and even in the attack on Algeria’s gas facility in January this year

The presence of armed militia remains a primary threat to Libya’s security. It will require a major effort not only to rein them in, but a major focus also to raise, train and equip the police and armed forces to take over the security in the country.

Conclusion

Libya thus faces multiple challenges before it can truly embark on the path to peace and stability. Political reforms and security remain the primary concerns. As the committee for drafting the election law for the election of constituent assembly has now been formed, there is some hope of the political process moving forward. Security concerns including the disbanding of armed militia may not be so easily achieved and international assistance could possibly be required for this.

The recent unrest in Egypt has shown that the overthrowing of dictators may well have been achieved but the revival of the state, post trauma is a long drawn and often bloody process. Libya could well take a cue from the unrest in neighbouring Egypt and ensure that the processes evolved are inclusive and incorporate demands of all groups in the society, an essential parameter in a vastly divergent country as Libya.

Keywords: Libya
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