Manohar Parrikar Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses
मनोहर पर्रिकर रक्षा अध्ययन एवं विश्लेषण संस्थान

A Fractured Peace

George Thomas
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View Point

As South Sudan enters the third round of peace talks in Addis Ababa the prospect of arriving at a full and final peace agreement remains suspect. Achieving a lasting and successful peace would involve addressing the root causes of the tension and a commitment to keeping peace.

Creation of South Sudan

The freedom bells that rang out on July 9, 2011 heralded the creation of a new state of South Sudan. Born of a bifurcation of Sudan, the long road to freedom was bloody, involving two civil wars lasting more than three decades. Unlike the northern areas of Sudan that are dominated by Arab Muslims the southern region is far more heterogeneous comprising of tribes of various ethnicities: the two major groups being the Dinka’s and the Nuers, together constituting close to 57 per cent of the population1 , with the remaining 13 tribes comprising 43 per cent. Thus mobilizing these different viewpoints towards a common purpose was itself a gargantuan task. The conflicting approaches were evident in the difference of opinion between John Garang the leader of the Sudan People’s Liberation Movement (SPLM) and Dr Reik Machar, the former Vice President. While Garang argued for a unified South Sudan, the latter for self- determination of South Sudan. Dr Machar split in 1991 creating a splinter group- the SPLA – Nasir group – and also orchestrated the Bor massacre in 1991 resulting in the death of 2,000 civilians. Dr Machar later received support from the Sudanese government and in 1997 signed a deal with Khartoum becoming the assistant to President Bashir.2

However with the demands for freedom and self-governance growing louder and louder, the Sudanese government conceded, resulting in the signing of the Comprehensive Peace Agreement in 2005. The goal of freedom was accomplished with the referendum, a reflection of the definitive will and desire of the populace, witnessing close to 99 percent in favour of independence. Freedom from the oppression of the government of Sudan was to herald a new era of peace and security. However the dream was short lived. Tensions on many fronts continued unabated. Oil, the heart of Sudan’s economy, continued to be a flashpoint between the two countries. However more important and threatening was the internal conflict.

Although the Juba Declaration on Unity and Integrity signed in 2006 sought to incorporate the various warring groups into the SLPM/A was a positive step towards improving solidarity and reducing tension, but it proved inadequate. A more permanent and direct approach towards breaking the cycle of hate and mistrust was imperative. In its absence tribal conflicts continued to define inter-tribal relations. One particularly important conflict was the dispute between the Murle tribes and the other tribes in the region. The 2009 raid which killed three tribal chiefs of the Lon Nuer tribe was the proved to be the final spark. What earlier began as a case of cattle stealing turned into a violent clashes with the abduction of women and children. Women were forced to marry their captors and were subjected to sexual violence33. Violence escalated to such levels that the Nuer Youth White Army issued a declaration that the only solution was “to remove the Murle tribe from the face of the earth”4. Although a peace accord has been signed in May 2012, the peace remains fragile.

The Present Conflict

The conflict which erupted in December 2013 as a political struggle between the president and Dr Machar has left thousands dead and some 870,000 displaced. Failure to fulfil the society’s common goals has spiralled into a free for all race for political power.

In April 2013 the president withdrew the powers delegated executive powers form the Dr Machar, without providing any reason. This raised suspicions of a larger cat and mouse game as Dr Machar had declared his intentions to challenge Salva Kiir for the post of president5. President Kiir had also issued a decree dissolving the National Reconciliation Committee overseen by Machar. This was alleged to be politically motivated6. A source close to the President had stated that it was Vice President Machar who was using the Committee as a political tool against the president as he was not consulted prior to it being placed before the council of ministers7. Interestingly, a week after dissolving the process, the president announced the formation of a new committee for national reconciliation8 to assuage the sentiments of the public.

The President and Dr Machar have also been at opposing ends regarding changes in the draft constitution debated in 2011. Dr Machar wanted a maximum of two five year terms for the president as well as the removal of the clause in the SPLM Constitution which gave the Chairperson the power to nominate five percent members at all levels of the party even in the legislature (National Liberation Congress)9. However he was defeated with the President accusing him of “parallelism”. He also called for a change of method for voting from a show of hands to a secret ballot, but this resolution was also defeated10. He had also questioned the dismissal of the elected Lake State governor by the President. Incidentally the Constitution gives the president the power to sack an elected governor and/or dissolve a state Parliament in the event of a serious crisis that threatens national security and territorial integrity.

The die was cast when in July 2013 President Kiir removed the vice president and other Ministers loyal to him. On December 14 the President called a meeting of the National Liberation Council where Dr Machar accused the President of attempting to disarm the Nuer tribe while the President alleged that Dr Machar had orchestrated a coup attempt. Juba erupted into violence which witnessed targeted ethnic killing. Jongeli and the Unity States fell under the sway of violence. Bor district became an important strategic pawn with forces loyal to Machar taking control. But with the government forces recapturing the district and increased pressure from international community brought the parties to the drawing table and a ceasefire agreement was signed on January 23, 2014.11

The agreement required the parties to cease military action, disengage forces, cease and desist from hostile propaganda while protecting civilians and granting them humanitarian access. The agreement also provided for a monitoring and verification mechanism comprising of civilian and military members. Yet, within a day, violence erupted with both sides accusing the other of violating the ceasefire. The second round of peace talks also did not succeeded in bringing peace. The government negotiator Nhial Deng blamed the mediators for involving the seven members who were arrested by the government for orchestrating the coup. The President has also ruled out entering into a power sharing agreement with Dr Machar.

The Way Forward

As the third round of peace talks gets underway, the chance of a peaceful resolution remains bleak. No lasting peace can be achieved as long as political institutions remain weak and inefficient and when corruption and unemployment further fuel the existing tensions in the region. Rule of law and justice are in shambles. The majority of the police are illiterate and suffer from a serious deficit in capacity, knowledge and skill. They are untrained and are neither able to protect and safeguard the rights of victims on one hand and punish for violation of the laws on the other. All these shortcomings have birthed a feeling of impunity and a rule of force with ‘justice’ being meted out through strength, normalizing the commission of violence among the tribes. The main priority has to be to rebuild these institutions. Justice must not only be done but also appear to be done. Accountability, transparency and good governance must also be part of the reconciliation campaign, a requirement highlighted by Dr Machar as well.

The present conflict has seen the tribes opposed on political grounds. A form of responsible and participatory government where all tribes have equal access to, and right to participate to the decision making process is essential. It is imperative to build faith and confidence in the government while replacing the animosity and hatred among the tribes inter se with one of unity in diversity. Economic development of the region is needed to ensure that shortage of resources is not a reason for strife. Sustained development will require an environment of trust and concerted action. Various reports have also indicated that the easy availability of weapons and large number of unemployed youth are a breeding ground for violence. Greater involvement of the youth in development programmes and a transparent and equitable weapons surrender programme, where no tribe is made to feel targeted, is essential.

However the first step has to be a swift and peaceful resolution. The involvement of the seven ministers continues to threaten the success of the third round of talks which has been adjourned till the end of April. With more than 67000 civilians still in overburdened UN peace camps and close to a million displaced persons, the situation is dire. Continuing of hostilities not only impede delivery of humanitarian assistance but also dissuades the international community from staying invested in the peace process. The US and the EU have already threatened sanctions which could worsen the plight of the civilians. The situation has been termed by Oxfam as a “serious risk”12. It is paramount that the parties must set aside their differences, as failure would plunge the nation into civil war. The UNMISS, can do precious little in such a doomsday scenario. The world is looking to see how the youngest nation can prove that rebel movements can not only win freedom, but also sustain it.

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