As the United States seeks to draw down its security forces in Afghanistan, India faces a serious policy conundrum. It has made, as Vishal Chandra argues, significant developmental and infrastructural investments in the country. If the US military withdrawal is significant, even if not precipitate, it may leave the field open to a reconstitution of the Taliban within the country. Such an outcome will dramatically enhance Pakistani influence in the country and thereby place India's very substantial commitments to date at risk.
It is a truism to say that the elite in Pakistan has used Islam to perpetuate its hold on power ever since the state came into being in 1947. The judiciary in Pakistan has been the latest to emphasise its Islamist credentials to legitimise its rise as an important constituent of the influential ‘quartet’ that is ruling Pakistan today.
The prognoses that it will be long before Afghanistan will be at peace with itself; that the Taliban have raised the cost of the Afghan war for the West; that the growing differences between the West and Kabul have aggravated the prevailing uncertainty over the future of the war; and that the US-led Afghan mission appears unwinnable are all unexceptionable.
The rise of the jihadist movement in Pakistan is driven primarily by ideological and religious factors. Decades of indoctrination of a virulent version of radical political Islam has motivated thousands of people—young and old—to take the path of violent jihad to capture political power, and through it, transform the society, economy and culture to bring about what they consider to be a pristine Islamic order.
The Afghan war has a long way to go. The situation has come to a point where with every passing month one wonders where the war is headed. There can be no doubt that it will be long before Afghanistan will be at peace with itself. At this moment, there does not seem to be any solution to the Afghan crisis. The Taliban and their allies, both Afghan and foreign, have notably succeeded in transforming the war to their advantage.
India is contesting elections for the non-permanent membership of the United Nations Security Council (UNSC) for a two-year term, 2011–12. If elected, it will return to the Security Council after a gap of 18 years. During this long hiatus, the geopolitical environment in the world has changed dramatically. As a member of the UNSC, India will be called upon to deliberate over a host of new issues and threats to international security.
