Dr. Arvind Gupta, LBSC, IDSA articulated views on the Indian Foreign Policy and its new challenges. He pointed out that due to changing geopolitical situation accompanied by transition in the global order as well as ongoing economic crisis, non-traditional security issues, human security and non state actors also need to be accommodated alongside the hardcore security issues. Issues like climate change, piracy are occurring due to paralysis of the multilateral institutions. Meanwhile role of the non-state actors is complicating the transition process. In addition, power is shifting from West to East. China’s power and influence has increased, while that of the West is facing a relative decline, in terms of international economic matters and in South Asia, Central Asia, South-East Asia, the Indian Ocean Region, Africa and Latin America.
It was noted that the recent shift in the US focus to the Asia-Pacific region through its new policy, the proposal for Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) and its decision to station 2500 marines in Australia have been regarded by China, whose has staked claim over South China Sea, as a hedging strategy if not outright containment by the USA. Today, the overarching question is how to respond to the rise of China. The second question that is worrisome is whether the power transition is going to be violent one and will bring stability? It was observed that the power transition will be a long drawn out as new identities are emerging not only in West Asian countries, but also in other regions and in such a situation, countries like China will have to find ways and means to accommodate and deal with these new identities.
In the meanwhile, India’s immediate and extended neighbourhood is undergoing rapid transformation of which an unstable-radicalised Pakistan and volatile-uncertain Afghanistan are of special interest and concern. Indian foreign policy has become far more activist than earlier times. However, Indian foreign policy makers need to pay attention to address some of the important challenges; management of its relationship with China; dealing with nuclear armed, unstable-radicalised Pakistan and the Sino-Pak nexus; ensuring stable relations with its neighbours; protecting its interests in the Indian Ocean Region and beyond; ensuring inclusive and consistent economic growth; and seek greater role in multilateral institutions while guarding its sovereignty against external trends.
It was noted that managing relation with China would remain key priority for India while keeping a watchful eye on Sino-Pak proximity. The trends in Indian foreign policy include diversifying its engagement with USA and other great powers, contributing to multi-polar world; enhanced focus on the neighbourhood and reaching out to Africa and Latin America; intensification of South-South cooperation; quest for energy and natural resources; strengthening diplomatic resources and so on.
Today, India is looking at two peripheries—enhancement of its relations with Africa while at the same time engaging East Asia through the “Look Far East” policy. For realising these policies, India needs material and diplomatic resources. Also an active role needs to be played by defence in order to develop requisite capabilities. Caution, restraint and avoidance of overreach remain characteristics of Indian foreign policy. In addition, building sufficient political, economic, military and diplomatic capacities will be sine qua non for successful engagement. However, it was noted that India might change its policy as the situation unfolds in Middle East though it has so far responded to the recent developments with caution.
Efraim Inbar, Director, BESA articulated views on Israeli Foreign Policy. He introduced the main elements in the emerging strategic landscape around Israel and focussed on the following major determinants; the weakening of Arab states, changes in the balance of regional power as the radical anti-American forces gain influence and the American retreat from the Middle East. It was emphasised that Israel foreign policy faces real challenges with deterioration in the strategic landscape in its neighbourhood and will probably face new elites which may lead to political miscalculations, new political entities and disintegration of some states.
The speaker focused on how elements like terrorism, increasing regional isolation, erosion in deterrence, new threats in the eastern Mediterranean, and the continuation of the Iranian nuclear programme affect Israel’s national security. On one hand, Israel sees an end to Middle East peace process and on the other hand, states like Tunisia, Libya, Egypt, Gaza, Syria, Turkey, and Iran are acquiring radical hues which suggest that Israel is once again surrounded by hostile radical forces. As for the big powers, there is a perceived decline in US power which is accompanied by very negative role played by Russia and China.
While examining major challenges to Israel it was articulated that the first was to manage relations with the US, its main ally, especially for continuity of weapons transfers, strategic cooperation, and political support while being cautious on how the US adopts moralistic appraisal to events in MENA (Middle East-North Africa) region. Second challenge would be to maintain peace treaties with Egypt and Jordan and third challenge would be to explain to the world that the peace process is over. In addition, it will be very important for Israel to find strategic partners, since its loss of Turkey. Israel has identified new partners like Greece, Cyprus, Romania and in the Middle East potential partners include South Sudan, Kurds and minorities in Middle East. It was noted that in current situation, Israel is investing in Central Asian Muslim states that have so far resisted Iranian influence. In this context, it was pointed out that perhaps Central Asia could be an area where India and Israel could cooperate. It was also pointed out that there is also a shift in Israel foreign policy concerning Asia and this is where Israel’s focus should lie.
It was noted by the speaker that the most important challenge for Israel is dealing with a nuclear Iran, a strategic problem also for the region as it will change the whole balance. It was pointed out that given the current leadership in Iran is very problematic, there is the need to mobilise international community to contain Iran. Also to counter the rise of Islamic radicalism, Israel should manage good relations with Islamic countries like Central Asia, Indonesia and India which has huge Muslim population of 150 million. It was pointed out that Israel is facing a deteriorating strategic environment. Nevertheless, this crisis can be weathered by it as it is a very strong state militarily, has social cohesion, strong economy (due to good management ethics), and right political leadership helps it to make right decisions.
During the discussion it was emphasised by Indian participant that the forces of globalisation are shaping the political and economic situations. The US economic crisis has had rebounding effect on Europe and on China. It was noted that speed of communication felt in the Arab Spring may find its way to China. The Israeli participant talked about the role of channel Al Jazeera in current uprising in the Arab world. It was noted that it was instrumental in fomenting upheavals against regimes in Syria, Egypt, and Jordan. Discussion regarding the MENA region focused on Islamic radicalism and how the world is re-adjusting to the new realities, new conflicts and new tensions.
The participant from Israel shed more light on the end of peace process in Middle East as an historic process of the seventies with Egypt and later with other Arab states which was more accepted by Arab elites and not the people. It was noted that the weakening of those elites has sounded the death knell. The Indian participant pointed that lack of leadership has led to failure to restore balance in MENA. The Israeli speaker pointed out that nuclear Iran has partly crossed the red line and reaction of Israel depends on the political decision and not on NATO. Moreover, solving Israel-Palestinian issue is not the answer to the security environment in the MENA as Palestine as an issue was not the focus of Arab spring. It was articulated that the two-state option is still on the table, the Palestinians having established a failed state cannot make a deal with Israel. However, there was hope that Turkey was not completely lost to Israel and Israel hoped to cultivate relations with Muslim states to address security balance within the region. However, one speaker raised optimist hope that radicalism in Middle East might help the states to get into the next period. It was pointed out that Arab culture will not come to an end as it is an old civilisation that has continued to exist despite upheavals. By historic terms the Arab civilisation is not a moribund one.
While answering queries the Indian speaker elaborated on some of the themes on role of Iran and Pakistan in Afghanistan, grand vision of India over the next five years and so on. While agreeing that relationship with the US was important to meet the security challenges, it was noted that Indian strategic autonomy needs to be maintained. However, both countries have room to cooperate even if their opinions did not converge on all interests. Moreover, India needs to watch the trajectory of US-China relations due to their economic interdependence. The participant also shed more light on the evolution of Indian foreign policy moving from the Nehruvian grand visions of global peace to more focus on national interest. It was pointed out that for India, the key drivers today are to have autonomous foreign policy; to ensure security in the background of what is happening in its neighbourhood like Pakistan, Afghanistan; piracy, maritime security; China’s encirclement; defence capabilities and diplomatic tools to meet the challenges. In addition the focus is on development wherein foreign policy can play a role by emphasising on economic content, resources, people to people contacts etc. From this follows India’s desire to play a positive role in the global order through multilateral institutions. It was noted by the Indian speaker that Indian participation in Afghan process is important and so is that of Pakistan and Iran. However, it is important to note that Pakistan’s activities have been detrimental to Afghan national interest. It was also pointed out that while Pakistan seeks complete exclusion of India’s role, Iran seeks exclusion of the US.
During the discussion, the Indian speaker elaborated on India’s take on Russia in terms of security in the Asian region. It was noted that despite Chinese migrants making forays into Russian east, the latter wants to maintain good relations with the former. However the new leadership can spell new directions in the Russian foreign policy. It was also argued that the US needs to deal with Russia and China working together over the issue of Iran.