Dr. Ashish Shukla, Associate Fellow, Manohar Parrikar IDSA (MP-IDSA), spoke on “The Ongoing Political Crisis in Pakistan” at the Monday Morning Meeting held on 18 September 2023. Dr. Ashok K. Behuria, Senior Research Fellow, MP-IDSA, moderated the session and the scholars of the Institute were in attendance.

Executive Summary

The arrest of PTI leader and former Prime Minister Imran Khan has intensified Pakistan’s political turmoil. It represents an effort by Pakistan’s influential military to keep Mr. Khan, who remains immensely popular among the youth, out of the upcoming electoral exercise. Prior to his arrest in May, Khan had resorted to open accusations against the top brass of the Army for his removal. However, the violence following his arrest gave the establishment a much-needed excuse to crack down on Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI).  With the approval of the new census and the dissolution of the Assembly in early August, the debate over the timing of the election has intensified.

Detailed Report

In his opening remarks, Dr. Ashok Behuria offered a brief overview of the recent political developments in Pakistan. He underlined the importance of the appointment of  Qazi Faez Isa as the new Chief Justice of Pakistan. He said that Justice Isa might have had issues with Imran Khan and the establishment, but he had all along been an upright judge throughout his judicial career. He analysed that a lot will depend on how he discharges his constitutional duties in the coming days. Dr. Behuria argued that the military was determined to sideline Imran Khan and the PTI at any cost. He stated that the situation was compounded by the ongoing economic crisis, marked by a depreciating currency and surging electricity bills and petrol prices. Having laid the background, he invited the Speaker to deliver his address for a more comprehensive examination of these critical developments.

Dr. Ashish Shukla started with an introduction to Pakistan’s multifaceted political crisis. He argued that unlike other countries, Pakistan never learns from a crisis and that is why, ever since its inception, it has been struggling to cope with multiple crises.  He underscored the turbulent state of Pakistan’s economy, marked by eroding business confidence, households struggling to pay their electricity and food bills. He noted that Pakistan narrowly averted an economic default in late June 2023 when IMF agreed to dispense $3 bn as part of an earlier agreement in 2019. After this, it secured $1 bn from China and $2 bn from Saudi Arabia.

Dr. Shukla remarked that the army was instrumental in bringing Imran Khan to power. However, in due course of time, for several reasons, he fell out of favour with the powerful establishment. His inability to deliver good governance created a rift between the government and the army, which later widened and culminated in his removal from power. Sensing the growing rift, the opposition was quick to bring a no-confidence motion in the national assembly, which Imran Khan could not get through and was defeated. He blamed his downfall on a conspiracy hatched by the establishment’s top brass.

The Speaker highlighted Imran Khan’s failed attempts to force the ruling elites to an early election. First, his MNAs resigned en mass from the National Assembly; later, he prematurely dissolved Provincial Assemblies in Punjab and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa. Dr. Shukla also discussed the judicial cushion Chief Justice Umar Ata Bandial offered to Imran Khan. With the same token, he also mentioned that with the retirement of Chief Justice Bandial, the judicial cover had gone.

Dr. Shukla explained how, despite the Supreme Court’s judgement to conduct an election in Punjab on 14 May, the PDM Government locked horns with the judiciary instead of implementing the order. It did not allocate the necessary budget, and the army also expressed its inability to provide the required security personnel for the smooth conduct of the election. It was both a violation of the Constitution and the Supreme Court judgement. In case of premature dissolution of the Assembly, the Constitution requires the State to conduct an election within 90 days.

A similar situation has been emerging again. The National Assembly was dissolved on 9 August, but as of now, elections have not been announced. Some PML-N leaders say the election will be held in the first week of February. However, the election commission has not issued any timeline. Meanwhile, Imran Khan has been re-arrested and put behind bars after a session court found him guilty in the Toshakhana case and sentenced him to 3 years in prison. Despite getting relief from the Islamabad High Court, Imran Khan remains in jail as he has been arrested in the Cypher Case. The establishment is determined to keep him in jail on one or the other charges. 

Dr. Shukla concluded his presentation by underlining that the upcoming election is going to be the test of the army’s predominance in Pakistani politics. Furthermore, he noted that Imran Khan’s fate will depend on how incumbent Chief Justice Faez Isa acts. He underscored the intricate interplay of military and civilian forces in Pakistan’s political dynamics, highlighting the complexities surrounding upcoming elections and the role of key stakeholders.

Comments and Questions

The floor was opened for remarks and questions. The Moderator, Dr. Ashok K. Behuria, echoed the Speaker’s perspectives about the upcoming elections in Pakistan. He highlighted the nation’s economic challenges and internal instability. External powers like Saudi Arabia, the UAE, the United States, and China might prevent a complete financial collapse of Pakistan. He reiterated that scholars should look beyond mainstream media to understand Pakistan’s political dynamics completely.

Further, the scholars made some noteworthy points about solving Pakistan’s ongoing political problems by reinforcing democratic institutions, fostering political discourse, enacting economic reforms, tackling security concerns, promoting civil-military cooperation, and improving the education system. The session ended with a unanimous agreement that attaining enduring political stability and efficient governance in Pakistan is a complex, long-range endeavour requiring commitment from all stakeholders.

Report prepared by Ms. Sneha M., Research Analyst, South Asia Centre, MP-IDSA.