Executive Summary

Maldives, an archipelago in South Asia, recently concluded its fourth presidential election under the multiparty system, resulting in Mohamed Muizzu of the Progressive Alliance securing a decisive victory with roughly 54% of the ballots. The outcome of this election holds significance for Maldivian Foreign Policy and the broader Indian Ocean Region. While outgoing President Solih pursued a pro-Indian foreign policy, President-elect Muizzu may be inclined more towards China. Nevertheless, continuing collaboration with India is likely on the horizon to fulfil his commitment to advancing the country’s economic development.

Detailed Report

In his opening remarks, Dr. Anand Kumar offered a brief overview of the recent Maldivian Presidential Election and its implications for India. He detailed that the first round of election took place on 9 September 2023, followed by a second runoff on 30 September  as no candidate secured the mandatory 50% vote in the first round. He assessed that corruption, governance, defence and security, sovereignty, and the presence of Indian troops in the country were some of the key election issues. Finally, he outlined how President-elect Mohamed Muizzu’s victory could potentially lead to shifts in foreign policy, aligning more closely with China while potentially distancing from India.

Dr. Gulbin Sultana began her presentation by concisely explaining the two-phase presidential polls in Maldives. She explained that in the fourth presidential elections, Mohamed Muizzu, representing the Progressive Alliance, a coalition comprising the Progressive Party of Maldives (PPM) and the People’s National Congress (PNC), emerged victorious over the incumbent, Mohammed Ibrahim Solih of the Maldivian Democratic Party (MDP). She highlighted how Muizzu’s win has sparked interest in its implications for the country’s foreign policy. However, she underlined that the newly elected president will face the delicate task of balancing domestic priorities with the ongoing geopolitical competition between India and China to expand its sphere of influence.

Dr. Sultana delved into the backdrop of previous presidential elections and their corresponding policies. Under President Yameen’s leadership from 2013 to 2018, the Maldives strengthened ties with China by joining its  Belt and Road Initiative. His successor, Ibrahim Solih from MDP, pursued an “India First” policy, enhancing developmental security and defence connections with India while avoiding projects conflicting with Indian interests initiated by the Chinese government. In terms of development, she highlighted India’s involvement in over 50 community development projects and the initiation of the Greater Male Connectivity Project. On the defence front, India’s ongoing initiatives encompass the construction of a naval harbour at UthuruThila Falhu, hydrographic surveys, supplying a Dornier aircraft and offering a US$ 50 million Credit Line for defence purposes. Nonetheless, she detailed how the Progressive Alliance opposed the deepening of bilateral ties by spearheading an “India Out” campaign based on disinformation.  Politicising the issue, “India Out” campaigners accused both India and the MDP government of undermining Maldives sovereignty.

Furthermore, the speaker mentioned the factors contributing to the current election outcome. Dr. Sultana claimed that the tilt of Solih’s administration towards India was not the only contributing factor. She highlighted the internal split within the MDP stemming from party differences, President Solih’s inability to fulfil promises made during his tenure, and concerns related to the nation’s sovereignty and strategic autonomy were additional elements that contributed to his poor performance in the elections.

The discussion encompassed various aspects, including the election promises articulated by the newly elected president. The speaker noted that the president-elect had strongly emphasised fostering economic development, addressing the issue of servicing the country’s debt, and recognising the significance of large-scale projects for the nation’s economy. In terms of foreign policy, he expressed intentions to enhance relations with multiple countries, Nevertheless, the speaker assessed that the country’s stability may face challenges due to the economic challenges posed by the pandemic and its over-reliance on imports.

Additionally, the speaker highlighted that while it is expected that Muizzu’s Presidency will result in increased Chinese involvement in the region, it is unlikely that the foreign policy will entirely revert to the 2013-2018 period under Abdullah Yameen, considering economic factors and the new administration’s priorities for the next five years.

Regarding the future of India-Maldives relations, Dr. Sultana anticipated their continuity despite the new president’s intentions to remove foreign military personnel from Maldivian soil. She enumerated India’s engagement with the Maldives, which has significantly expanded, spanning development initiatives and financial support. In essence, she anticipated that the diplomatic dialogues between the Maldives and India are expected to endure due to shared interests and ongoing projects. 

Questions and Comments

The floor was opened for questions and comments. The remarks and inquiries underscored the potential resurgence of Islamic radicalism, the new president’s ability to balance relations with major powers like India, China, Japan and the US, as well as the prospect of a formal defence and security agreement between India and the Maldives. Lastly, the discussion centred on India’s neighbourhood policy and underscored the significance of effective engagement and the timely execution of projects to enhance India’s standing in the region.

Report prepared by Sneha M, Research Analyst, South Asia Centre, MP-IDSA.