Dr. M.S. Prathibha, Associate Fellow, Manohar Parrikar Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses (MP-IDSA) spoke on “China-Russia Relationship: A Greater Alignment?” at the Monday Morning Meeting held on 24 June. The session was moderated by Dr. Prashant Kumar Singh, Research Fellow, MP-IDSA. MP-IDSA scholars attended the meeting.   

Executive Summary

The growing cooperation between China and Russia visible at the international level has evoked considerable discussion regarding the extent of strategic alignment between the two countries as they perceive considerable strategic and economic pressure from the West. Dr Prathibha in her presentation underlines the factors motivating China-Russia cooperation, the extent of cooperation between the two countries and finally the challenges to greater alignment between Russia and China.

Detailed Report

The session opened with introductory remarks from Dr. Prashant Kumar Singh. Deliberating on the long history of Sino-Russia relations and its trajectory he observed that Russia’s annexation of Crimea in 2014 was a watershed event. Following Crimea’s annexation, Russia’s reliance on China deepened in an unprecedented way because of US-led sanctions. Bilateral ties further advanced in 2020 and in 2022 a few days before the outbreak of the Ukraine crisis, the two countries declared a ‘no-limits partnership’. Dr. Singh noted that although China and Russia are not treaty bound allies, the West views them as such. However, delving deeper, differences over a range of issues are perceptible including Russia’s limited support to Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). Further, questions remain about the depth of their partnership and the extent of their cooperation on geopolitical issues vis-à-vis the West. For instance, China did not recognise Russia’s annexation of Crimea and has been very careful in its support for Russia in order to avoid disruption of economic and diplomatic ties with Europe. Moreover, with regard to military cooperation, although the number of joint exercises is increasing, there is little interoperability between the militaries of the two countries. Also, Moscow has been reluctant to export sensitive military technology to Russia. Highlighting the differences between Russia and China’s perception of the world order, he queried if Russia-China cooperation is driven by anti-US sentiment and whether the seeming closeness between Russia and China will have any implications for India.

Dr. M.S. Prathibha in her presentation explained the factors motivating China-Russia cooperation, the extent of cooperation between the two countries and finally the challenges to greater alignment between Russia and China.

Dr. Prathibha noted that there is a surge of interest regarding Russia-China relations, following the signing of the joint communique where they declared a no-limits partnership. The joint statement implying that there are no forbidden areas of cooperation between the two countries led observers in the West to conclude that Moscow and Beijing are likely to remove the previous constraints that impinged on bilateral cooperation. Apprehensions about unrestrained cooperation deepened as China aligned its position with Russia on the Ukraine crisis in the UN, refused to condemn Moscow’s actions and Chinese media openly supported Russian narratives. Further, increase in Russia’s exports to China, naval exercises in South China Sea and Sea of Japan solidified the perception of growing strategic coordination between the two countries on the world stage.

Turning to factors underpinning Russia-China cooperation, Dr. Prathibha noted that strategic and development interests, highlighted in the 2024 China-Russia joint talks are the two major factors driving cooperation between the two countries. She explained that strategic interests referred to limiting US primacy in international affairs to give Russia and China more manoeuvrability. Developmental interests are focused on accelerating economic development through access to modern and strategic technologies. She added that it is a strategic choice on the part of Russia and China to develop bilateral ties; first, both countries perceive that the West is bent on denying them access to strategic technologies required for economic modernisation. Accordingly, the two countries are looking into collaboration on sensitive and emerging technological domains. Second on the economic front, while Russia is desperately looking for imports, Chinese companies are also interested in tapping into the Russian market.

With regard to whether China and Russia are really cooperating, Dr. Prathibha explained that there are indications of the two countries cooperating in the strategic and economic domain. For instance, China and Russia are planning to work closely to jointly expand the influence of BRICS and the SCO as a counter to US-led organisations. Also, China has become an economic lifeline to Russia by exporting dual use components. At the same time, Beijing is using considerable influence to support Moscow while maintaining its neutrality. Additionally, China and Russia are moving to cooperate in Central Asia to stabilise the region and enhance its economic potential through BRI and other Russian led initiatives. Similarly, they are also looking into ways of implementing the pre-2030 plan which aims to modernise industrial supply chains between the two countries. In this context, it is noteworthy that the ‘Comprehensive Strategic Partnership of Cooperation in the New Era’ plan is a long-term view which extends till 2049.

Discussing whether the growing cooperation indicates alignment, Dr. Prathibha noted that there are historical and structural challenges to strategic alignment between the countries. She observed that throughout history, China and Russia have been imperial and hegemonic rivals. China holds the historical memory of losing territory to Russia and considers the latter to be an expansionist power. On the other hand, current China-Russia cooperation is happening because of deterioration in China-US relations. Therefore, if China and US relations improve, the urgency from Chinese side to cooperate with Russia might reduce. She added that there is considerable mistrust on the Chinese side vis-à-vis Russia and cooperation with Moscow is dictated primarily by norms of Chinese foreign policy rather than any feeling of kinship. Furthermore, the Chinese view is that the US is traditionally more willing to make concessions to improve bilateral ties. In contrast, Russia is less accommodating, making concessions only when compelled by pressure or threats, rather than as a gesture of goodwill.

Dr. Prathibha concluded her presentation by stating that there could be greater coordination on the political and economic side to face Western pressure and formulate mutually favourable industrial policies respectively. However, historical and structural factors will limit cooperation at least from the Chinese side.

Q&A Session

The presentation was followed by a Q&A Session. Deputy Director General Gp. Capt. (Dr.) Ajey Lele queried about China’s reaction to Russia-North Korea cooperation and Russia’s stance in a possible conflict on Taiwan Straits. One of the scholars queried about the possibility of renewed competition between Russia-China and the US in Central Asia. Reflecting on Chinese mistrust towards Russia, another scholar asked about Russia’s perception of Chinese expansionist tendencies and extent of Sino-Russian cooperation on military technology.

During the Q&A session it was observed that Russia-China cooperation is not directed at India and Russia is unlikely to allow China to have a veto over its foreign policy. However, it is in India’s interest to deepen India-Russia relations by adding more pillars to bilateral ties.

Report prepared by Ms. Mayuri Banerjee, Research Analyst, East Asia Centre, MP-IDSA, New Delhi.