Dr. Patryk Kugiel, Senior Analyst for South Asia at the Polish Institute of International Affairs (PISM), Warsaw, made a presentation on “Security and Defence Cooperation between India and Poland” at the Monday Morning Meeting held on 27 May 2024. The Session was chaired by Ambassador Sujan R. Chinoy, Director-General, Manohar Parrikar Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses (MP-IDSA). Scholars of the Institute participated in the discussion.

Executive Summary

The people of India and Poland have shared cordial relations since historical times. In 1942, Maharaja Digvijaysinhji Ranjitsinhji Jadeja established the Polish Children’s Camp in Jamnagar-Balachadi, offering refuge to Polish children. During World War II, Polish and Indian soldiers fought together in various battles, prominent among which was the Battle of Monte Cassino. Not only do both the countries have a history in defence cooperation over the last 70 years, but also have a shared future in the defence sector.

Detailed Report

Dr. Patryk Kugiel commenced his presentation by highlighting the glorious past of Poland-India relations in the defence sector. During the Cold War era, Poland was the seventh largest supplier of arms to India and India was the second largest market for Polish arms export, showcasing very intensive cooperation between both the countries. In 1989, Poland entered into a complex transition in political, economic and strategic dimensions. This led to the rearrangement of Poland’s foreign policy from East to the West, in turn bringing about change in its strategic defence partners. The Polish defence sector and heavy industries underwent remarkable restructuring and privatisation as well. These developments transitioned Poland from an arms exporter (of Soviet equipment) to arms importer (from the West). Dr. Kugiel highlighted that from 1991, the Indian economy also started to transition and so did its defence sector. During this time India remained heavily dependent on Russia for arms supply, but in the subsequent years, India has also started to diversify its imports, by opening markets to supplies from USA, France and Israel, among others.

Dr. Kugiel highlighted that during the last three decades there have been many attempts to revive defence cooperation. For instance, in 1998 India bought 22 TS-11 Iskra jet trainers and 44 WZT- 3 Armoured Recovery Vehicles (ARVs); in 2002, 88 WZT (ARVs) and fire control DRAWA-T systems. Furthermore, in 2003 the countries signed a Defence Cooperation Agreement and in 2004 a Joint Working Group (JWG) on defence cooperation was established. Moreover, the Defence Wing of the Indian Embassy in Warsaw was reopened on 8 May 2024, with Brigadier Satish Trivedi’s accreditation to Poland’s Ministry of National Defence.

Dr. Kugiel emphasised that the war in Ukraine has complicated relations, but can also be seen as a new opportunity in India-Polish cooperation in the defence sector. He highlighted the changes that have taken place in the Polish defence sector since the war i.e., urgent replacement of Russian military equipment, modernisation of armed forces (through a spike in defence budget and investment in domestic industry) and increased international cooperation. There have also been changes in the political dimensions, as Poland has now become a frontline state and is a key member of NATO. He also stressed on the Weimar Triangle between France, Germany and Poland emerging as a new engine for European cooperation and integration.

Regarding India’s defence sector, Dr. Kugiel raised the following strategic questions. Is Russia a reliable supplier? Is Russian equipment the best? Is the Russia-China axis emerging? Is the overdependence on Russia in sync with India’s strategic economy? He also highlighted the following strategic implications for India i.e., replacement of Russian/post-Soviet equipment which might impact the modernisation and development of the domestic defence industry in India.

Dr. Kugiel emphasised that both countries have potential for cooperation in the defence sector, mainly in three areas – modernisation of post-Soviet equipment, experience of ready-made products (such as Krab howitzer, Piorun and Grom man-portable air-defense systems, Grot rifles), and co-development and co-production of new weapons system (Borsuk Amphibious Infantry Fighting Vehicle). However, according to Dr. Kugiel, this cooperation between Poland and India faces the challenge of lack of trust and mutual understanding. There is lack of clear understanding on the requirement, rules and procedures of procurement. Additionally, there is uncertainty about whether the existing resources and technologies are sufficient for the mass-production of weapons required in current times.

In his concluding remarks, Dr. Kugiel provided recommendations to meet these challenges and obstacles. For the rebuilding of mutual trust and understanding in defence cooperation he suggested that there is a great need for dialogue between the policymakers such as the National Security Advisors (NSA), the countries should focus on the revival of the JWG on defence, match major arms producing companies for co-production projects and find solutions to the issues in the Bumar contract. He stressed on the need to address the existing knowledge gap between the procedures of procurement in both the countries, suggesting detailed studies to examine the potential of joint projects. This would help in strengthening military dialogues with the exchange visits of military personnel and academicians. There is also a need to revive joint bilateral and multilateral military exercises. He emphasised on the need for maximisation of resources to address these deficiencies together and intensify partnership in major arms fairs.

Comments and Questions

Amb. Sujan Chinoy thanked Dr. Kugiel for his recommendations on advancing the bilateral relationship and defence cooperation between India and Poland. He stressed the need to encourage Polish companies to participate in Indian trade fairs and also the Indian defence industrial corridors. He also emphasised the possibilities of investing in the Indian defence sector as it has been opened for 100 per cent foreign direct investment (FDI), stating the example of ‘Saab’ – becoming the first global defence company to secure an approval for a 100 per cent FDI project in the defence corridor in Uttar Pradesh to manufacture the Carl-Gustaf rocket systems. Amb. Chinoy agreed on the need for increased dialogue at different levels. Regarding overdependence on Russia, he pointed out that Indian imports from Russia have come down from 70 per cent to about 36 per cent and that overdependence is a thing of the past. Commenting on the Russia-China axis, Amb. Chinoy said that the two countries are coming closer against the primacy of the West in the current international order in terms of agenda setting and not against India.

Gp. Capt. (Dr.) R.K. Narang (Retd.), commented on the changing landscape of the Indian defence industry in the last decade and the development of niche technologies by Indian companies.

Dr. Swasti Rao, enquired about how India could improve its exports to Poland, and asked the Speaker to share his views on the geopolitical development of the Weimar Triangle and its role in Ukraine’s and Europe’s security at large.

Dr. Rajorshi Roy, questioned about NATO’s overtures to India, and Dr. Kugiel’s assessment on how India would react to these overtures.

Dr. Rajiv Nayan, enquired about Poland’s import of military equipment from South Korea.

Dr. Samuel C. Rajiv, enquired about Polish and European export efforts post the war in Ukraine.

Dr. Patryk Kugiel responded to the comments and the questions raised by the MP-IDSA Scholars.

Report has been prepared by Ms. Anusua Ganguly, Intern, Europe and Eurasia Centre, MP-IDSA.