On 19 December 2022 Dr. M.S. Prathibha, Associate Fellow, MP-IDSA, made a presentation on “Recent Developments in China’s Relationship with North Korea” at the Monday Morning Meeting. Cmde. Abhay Kumar Singh (Retd.) chaired the session. Maj.Gen. (Dr.) Bipin Bakshi (Retd.), the Deputy Director General, MP-IDSA and MP-IDSA scholars enriched the discussion.

Executive Summary

The geopolitical situation in the Korean Peninsula is growing tense. One of the major reasons of this tension is North Korea’s missile tests. Several countries including South Korea and the US have called on China to exert its influence on Pyongyang to stop the tests. However, the complex relations between North Korea and China, Pyongyang’s propensity to follow an independent foreign policy and recent developments in the international situation have cast a big doubt on China’s capability and willingness to influence North Korea’s actions.

Detailed Report

Cmde. Singh introduced the topic with a brief overview of the developments with regard to North Korea’s missile tests, speculations about North Korea’s plans to conduct its seventh nuclear test and the complex China-North Korea relations. Thereafter, he invited Dr. Prathibha to make a presentation on the subject.

Dr. Prathibha in her presentation highlighted three aspects. First, North Korea’s interests in conducting missile tests, second, the complex relationship between China and North Korea and third, the extent of Chinese leverage vis-à-vis North Korea. Elaborating on the probable reasons why North Korea conducted so many missile tests last year, she reasoned that the tests are a way to improve the quality of its nuclear deterrence and signal the international community to negotiate with Pyongyang. The five-year plan unveiled in January 2021 talks about a plethora of weapon systems such as Multiple Independently targetable Reentry Vehicles (MIRVs), hypersonic cruise missiles, nuclear submarines, solid-fuel ground missiles which either have been developed or are being developed. Further, North Korea could also be projecting these nuclear tests as a counter to the military exercises conducted by the US, South Korea and Japan. Besides the military objectives, these tests were also seen as way to maximise North Korea’s position when the US is occupied with the Ukraine crisis.

Talking about China’s interests in North Korea, Dr. Prathibha shared that the stability of North Korea’s regime is an issue of interest to China and that Beijing wants to maintain North Korea as a buffer state. In Chinese perception, the Korean Peninsula is a frontier area where land and sea power connect and therefore, plays an important role in geopolitical terms. Also, Japan’s rise is closely associated with the Korean Peninsula as it used the region as a springboard to expand its power. The region is an important maritime space for countries who might use it to have a strategic confrontation with China. Thus, in a crisis situation, Beijing will intervene militarily to safeguard China’s security interests. Another reason for Chinese interest in North Korea is that the Korean Peninsula can become an area where great powers balance each other. According to Dr. Prathibha, China’s policies towards North Korea are geared towards protecting China’s security interests. Regime stability in Chinese calculation means helping the regime survive economically, politically and militarily. Highlighting the complexity of the bilateral ties, she observed that regardless of whether North Korea is strategically coordinating with China, the latter considers North Korea an ally because of the overall strategic and historical interests. Also, Beijing is confident that no matter who rules Korea or how many times policies change, the Korean Peninsula will have to choose cooperation with China. In this context Dr. Prathibha highlighted two important developments in the recent past as instances of the complex relationship between China and North Korea. She informed the audience that before 2012, China had attempted to persuade North Korea to follow Chinese footsteps of pursuing economic liberalisation without political liberalisation. However, that did not work out very well and created a deep freeze in China-North Korea relations which extended till 2017. The second development happened when in 2018 China decided not to push North Korea in that direction and took steps to gradually relax the tense atmosphere.

With regard to the question of Chinese leverage over North Korea, Dr. Prathibha contended that there are two broad strands of thought within the scholarly community. The first believes that as the survival of the North Korean regime depends on Chinese assistance, China has leverage over North Korea. However, there is a large section who believe that the relationship is complex and China’s leverage is limited. Diverging from these arguments, she observed that instead of judging solely in terms of leverage, one should also look at how the shifts happening in the international system are driving the two countries close to each other. For instance, North Korea could be trying to gain geostrategic and economic advantage out of the ongoing major power competition by cooperating with Russia and China. Further, mutual strategic interests like pushing the US out of the Korean Peninsula could be a major driving factor in China-North Korea relations. However, it is noteworthy that North Korea follows an independent non-aligned foreign policy and there is always resentment against China’s help. Further, lack of strategic coordination is apparent as North Korea does not take into account Chinese concerns when conducting missile tests. Reverting to the issue of Chinese capability to influence North Korea, Dr. Prathibha emphasised that Beijing’s attempts will depend on how China views US policy towards North Korea.

She concluded her presentation by stating that the future trajectory of North Korea’s foreign policy is unpredictable and how China, Russia and North Korea cooperation will pan out remains to be seen.

Q& A Session

Following her presentation Cmde. Singh urged Dr. Prathibha to share her thoughts on China’s refusal to militarily intervene in North Korea’s support if Pyongyang initiates a conflict. DDG, Maj. Gen. Bakshi (Retd.) queried about China’s frontier concept and how it directs China’s larger game plan.

When the floor was opened for further questions, several issues were raised including whether North Korea will ever abandon its independent foreign policy and the political viability of North Korea’s strategy vis-à-vis the US.

Responding to these questions, Dr. Prathibha observed that although China intends to reduce US influence in the Korean Peninsula it does not want Pyongyang to initiate a conflict and then drag China into it. Accordingly, China has been more willing to condemn North Korea’s nuclear tests (which it sees as a larger threat) than ballistic missile ones. With regard to DDG’s query, she stated that China and Korea share historical relations and if there is any overt balancing in the Korean Peninsula, Beijing will make sure that it does not become a threat. On the question of North Korea’s independent foreign policy, she informed that China too is weary about pushing North Korea as it is very hard to control Pyongyang. Also, the North Korean regime is more likely to take drastic steps to maintain its independent foreign policy compared to other countries. Lastly, reflecting on the political viability of North Korea’s strategy, Dr. Prathibha observed that the missile tests are the only leverage they have to draw the US attention to their policies.

Report prepared by Ms. Mayuri Banerjee, Research Analyst, MP-IDSA.