Dr. Smruti Pattanaik, Research Fellow, Manohar Parrikar IDSA (MP-IDSA), spoke on “Military Takeover in Bangladesh: What Next?” at the Monday Morning Meeting held on 12 August 2024. The session was moderated by Dr. Pushpita Das, Research Fellow, MP-IDSA. The MP-IDSA scholars attended the meeting.

Executive Summary

The session provided a comprehensive analysis of the ongoing crisis in Bangladesh, with a focus on the military’s role, the dynamics of the protest movement, and the broader implications for Bangladesh’s political future. The discussion underscored the complexities of the situation and the challenges ahead as Bangladesh navigates this period of transition. The meeting concluded with reflections on the potential outcomes and the importance of monitoring the developments closely.

Detailed Report

In her opening remarks, Dr. Pushpita Das offered an overview of the recent political developments in Bangladesh, particularly the resignation of Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina and the formation of an interim government led by Dr. Mohammad Yunus. She highlighted the significance of the ongoing protests in Bangladesh, which originated from discontent over the country’s quota system but soon escalated into a broader political movement demanding Sheikh Hasina’s resignation.

Dr. Smruti Pattanaik, began her presentation by showcasing posters that were widely circulated on social media, which became symbols of the resistance. Dr. Pattanaik informed the audience that the protests began in June 2024 in response to the decision taken by the High Court of Bangladesh reinstating a 30 percent quota for descendants of freedom fighters, reversing the government decision made in response to the 2018 Bangladesh quota reform movement. She assessed that the order made students insecure about getting a government job based on merit. However, these protests soon escalated into a nationwide demand for Sheikh Hasina’s resignation. She acknowledged that the situation intensified and Hasina was allegedly forced to resign and flee to India. The interim government, led by Dr. Mohammed Yunus, took charge amidst demands for immediate elections. Dr. Pattanaik highlighted that these protests resulted in the killing of more than 200 people including students and children.

Dr. Pattanaik highlighted the military’s preference for behind-the-scenes control rather than direct governance, a strategy reminiscent of the 2007 crisis when the military took over in Bangladesh. She pointed out that the military’s refusal to fire on protesters and its cautious approach were significant factors in the events that have occurred. Dr. Pattanaik assessed that the protests, initially focused on reservation reforms, gained momentum due to the government’s inability to engage constructively with students, civil society and the killing of Abu Saeed, who was the only educated person in his 13 member family who aspired to get a government job and became a symbol that the protesters rallied around. She noted that the killing of student leaders and the police’s heavy-handed response further fueled public anger. The protest movement, which saw participation from students, teachers, and various political factions, led to widespread mobilisation against the government. The role of the government-backed student organisation, Chhatra League, in countering the protests with violence along with the police who used brutal methods was also discussed.

Dr. Pattanaik acknowledged the increased attacks on minorities, particularly Hindus, in the aftermath of Hasina’s ouster. These attacks, driven by both communal and economic motives, were reminiscent of past violence in Bangladesh. She noted that the potential for further violence, especially against minorities, remains a concern as the interim government and military navigate the transition.

Dr. Pattanaik drew parallels between the current crisis and previous student-led movements in Bangladesh, such as the 1952 Language Movement, the 1969 anti-government protests, 2013 Shahbagh Movement, 2018 anti-quota movement, and safe road movement which was started by the school students. She emphasised that student activism has historically played a crucial role in Bangladesh’s political landscape. Dr. Pattanaik also compared the current situation to the events of 1971 and 2007, highlighting the cyclical nature of political unrest in Bangladesh.

The interim government’s composition, including student leaders, BNP sympathisers, religious party leaders and one from the minority community was discussed as a new development. However, uncertainties remain regarding the timeline for elections and the interim government’s ability to handle the ongoing crisis in the country. Dr. Pattanaik questioned the participation of Jamaat-e-Islami leaders which remains a banned political party and the exclusion of other political parties in the swearing-in ceremony of the interim government. The circumstances surrounding Hasina’s resignation and exile to India were also debated. Dr. Pattanaik analysed the impact of Hasina’s departure on her political legacy and the perception of her as a grassroots leader.

Comments and Q&A

Following the presentation, the moderator, Dr. Pushpita Das opened the floor for questions and comments. Scholars of MP-IDSA emphasised the need to closely monitor the role of other political parties in the evolving situation. They also inquired about the role India should play in the evolving situation, about the upcoming elections in the country and the ability of the interim government to handle the current situation in the country.

Scholars also inquired about the role of foreign powers in the current situation that has unfolded in Bangladesh leading to the resignation of Sheikh Hasina and how the foreign media is looking at it.

Dr. Pattanaik responded to the comments and questions raised by the scholars of MP-IDSA.

Report prepared by Ms. Puspa Kumari, Intern, South Asia Centre, MP-IDSA.