Dr.  Nihar R. Nayak, Research Fellow, Manohar Parrikar Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses, spoke on “COP 27: An Assessment” at the Monday Morning Meeting held on 21 November 2022. The session was chaired by Dr. Uttam K. Sinha, Centre Coordinator, Non- Traditional Security Centre, MP-IDSA. Maj. Gen. (Dr.) Bipin Bakshi, Deputy Director General, MP-IDSA, Senior Scholars, Research Analysts, and Interns of the Institute were in attendance.

Executive Summary

The 2022 Conference of the Parties to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (COP 27) was held from from 6 November to 20 November 2022 in Sharm El-Sheikh, Egypt. The presentation gave a comprehensive overview of the Conference and the major issues raised during the meeting.

Detailed Report

Dr. Uttam Kumar Sinha commenced the session by introducing the audience to the recently concluded COP 27 Summit. He highlighted that this year’s summit has been projected as the ‘Implementation COP’ given that there is hope of focussing on implementation of previous policies adopted. He noted that the current geopolitical landscape represents a “permacrisis” that is characterised by long periods of insecurity and instability. 

With these remarks, Dr. Sinha invited Dr. Nayak to make his presentation. At the outset, Dr. Nayak introduced the audience to the origin of the COP and its decision-making process. He noted that the report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) in 1990 and the 1992 Rio Earth Summit led to the establishment of the COP. He highlighted that the UNFCCC does not legally bind or provide any timeline and targets for the participants. However, he added that it is mandatory to hold regular COPs. Dr. Nayak opined that the third COP held in Kyoto in 1997 and the COP 21 in Paris in 2015 are of particular relevance to the global climate policy and established mechanisms of responsibility-sharing. He added that the former was limited in mandate and especially for the developed countries, while the latter included all developing countries as well.

In the next part of his presentation, Dr. Nayak displayed comparative figures to depict the top greenhouse gas emitters on a global level. On a cumulative basis, since 1850, the United States and European Union occupied the top positions. The speaker then compared these with the emission status in 2018, wherein, China occupied the top position. Dr. Nayak opined that climate negotiations have further led to divisions between the developed and developing states. He added that developing countries have been demanding the release of climate funds and the introduction of the loss and damage fund. However, developed countries continue to avoid these demands. Dr. Nihar also presented the data displaying the current status of Climate Finance and the amount contributed by developed states.

Dr. Nayak also discussed the major issues raised during COP 27 negotiations. He noted that several participants demanded more action-oriented rules. He added that demands for the inclusion of the Top 20 emitters, including India and China, to contribute to the climate fund have also increased. The demands were met with some  opposition from India. He further noted that the European Union has demanded that natural gas and nuclear power should be declared as green energy and the International Monetary Fund proposed that the carbon price floor should be fixed.

The speaker further addressed three critical issues that came up during COP 27 negotiations. Firstly, he discussed the demands for a Loss and Damage Fund led by the G-77 countries. Although officially adopted, he opined that its implementation will be a challenge. Secondly, Dr. Nayak also discussed India’s proposal for the phase-down of all fossil fuels and the lack of support for the same. Lastly, he highlighted the debate on limiting global average temperature rise  to 1.5 degrees and the risks associated with crossing that threshold.

The speaker also tracked civil society responses to the negotiation. He noted that the summit witnessed large-scale participation from global energy companies and it was funded by major polluting companies. He added that fossil fuel lobbyists included delegates mainly from the United Arab Emirates and African countries that influenced climate negotiations.

In the next part of his presentation, Dr. Nayak discussed India’s stance at the COP 27. He noted India’s re-emphasis on Common but Differentiated Responsibilities and Respective Capabilities (CBDR-RC). India also sought clarifications on the climate fund. The Mangrove Alliance for Climate was also launched in order to promote the preservation of mangrove forests towards efforts to curb global warming. He added that India opposed the demand for declaring ‘gas as green energy’. Discussing the achievements of the summit, he posited that spurring private sector investments in the green energy market and the increasing use of solar power is a success.

Dr. Nayak concluded by presenting the challenges faced during climate negotiations. These included the absence of implementation mechanisms on loss and damage fund provisions, lack of consensus on contentious issues, geopolitical issues such as Ukraine and Taiwan, the growing influence of energy companies, and a trust deficit between developed and developing states.

Discussion

Maj. Gen. (Dr.) Bipin Bakshi, (Retd.) underlined the importance of the Loss and Damage Fund and highlighted the need to increase renewable energy use.

Dr. Nazir Ahmad Mir raised questions on the 1.5° C threshold, the global stance on Climate Change and the role of African companies in supporting fossil-fuel use.

Dr. Deepika Sarawat enquired about the institutional mechanisms to decide the host for the COP summit. 

Ms. Mayuri Banerjee made a query about whether there is a link  between terrorism and climate change and the existing discourse on the challenges faced by the two

The discussion ended with a Vote of Thanks by Dr. Uttam K. Sinha.

The report has been prepared by Ms. Richa Kumaria, Intern, Non- Traditional Security Centre, MP-IDSA.