Ms. Mayuri Banerjee, Research Analyst, Manohar Parrikar Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses (MP-IDSA), spoke on “China’s Zero-COVID Policy: Reactions at Home and Abroad” at the Monday Morning Meeting held on 26 December 2022. The session was moderated by Dr. Titli Basu, Associate Fellow. Ambassador Sujan R. Chinoy, Director General, MP-IDSA, and scholars of the Institute were in attendance.

Executive Summary

The rising COVID cases in China have set off alarm bells all around the world. China’s National Health Commission has ceased releasing information on the daily COVID cases. The present surge in cases comes at a time when the nation is doing away with its Zero COVID policy and gradually opening up its economy and society.

A look at China’s approach to the pandemic highlights its emphasis on stamping out the virus. China’s Zero COVID policy is essentially an elimination strategy that aims to keep infection numbers as low as possible at all costs. Despite mounting criticism of policy excesses, China’s Communist Party (CCP) reaffirmed its commitment to the Zero COVID policy.

Since its inception three years ago, the policy has achieved very little in comparison to the cost it has inflicted on the Chinese economy and society. The population that once supported the policy is now increasingly opposed to it. It remains to be seen how China will deal with the ramifications of the Zero COVID policy.

Detailed Report

Dr. Basu commenced the Monday Morning Meeting by highlighting the explosion in COVID cases in China. She emphasised that China’s rapid surge in COVID cases has impacted the world’s health security and geo-economics. Furthermore, the surge in cases comes at a time when Beijing is parting ways with its Zero-COVID policy.

Like other nations, India is also reflecting on this growing concern. Dr. Basu stated that India would be concentrating on using a test-track-treat strategy in the future.

Ms. Banerjee was given the floor by the moderator after the brief introduction.

The speaker stated that the Zero-COVID policy has been a topic of considerable debate from the time it was instituted, in 2020. She began by exploring the timeline of the COVID-19 situation and highlighted the long gap between reporting of the first cluster of cases in early December 2019 and government response. According to Ms. Banerjee, administrative laxity allowed 5 million individuals to leave Wuhan and facilitated the rapid spread of the virus to other regions of China as well as to neighbouring countries.

The speaker pointed out that China came under heavy criticism for its slow response. It was as late as 23 January 2020 that Beijing initiated strong measures to stop the virus’s spread. Ms. Banerjee stated that, in December 2020, China began its vaccination program. Here, she noted that, while China put much emphasis on stamping out the virus, it did not enforce vaccination as mandatory. In 2021, China continued to report major outbreaks.

Further, the speaker discussed China’s Zero COVID policy. She observed that the policy became a cornerstone of China’s response to COVID 19.  It came to signify zero tolerance against COVID 19 infection and aimed to achieve zero community-level transmission. Ms. Banerjee then cited a joint report by the World Health Organisation and China that provided a theoretical framework for the Zero-COVID strategy.

Ms. Banerjee observed that the Zero-COVID policy was essentially an elimination strategy aimed at keeping infection numbers as low as possible. However, reports and instances emerged indicating government policy excesses, intrusive control measures, mismanagement, and lack of flexibility. The severe lockdowns also posed enormous difficulties for Chinese citizens.

In order to double down on the Zero-COVID approach, Provinces were divided into grids with grid controllers mandated to enforce the protocol measures dictated by local authorities. She mentioned that the government launched an app to monitor people’s movements to determine whether they posed risk of contagion, causing massive bewilderment and confusion.

Further, the speaker highlighted the number of lockdowns imposed in China as compared to other countries. In this regard, she noted that in contrast to other countries, China consistently increased the number of lockdowns over the years.

Ms. Banerjee stated that when the Omicron Variant was discovered in November 2021, China fine-tuned its COVID policy to ‘Dynamic Zero-COVID policy’. She claimed that the modification was based on the realisation that given the new variant’s high transmissibility, zero domestic outbreaks were not possible. According to the speaker, in contrast to the previous policy, a greater emphasis was placed on prevention and containment. However, the difference on the ground was negligible.

Ms. Banerjee also discussed why the implementation of the COVID policy became so unresponsive to people’s needs. First, there was a fear of punishment among government officials, and second, there was competition among local officials and Provinces in the hope of political advancement.

As the presentation drew to a close, she discussed the cost of Zero-COVID policy for both China and the international community and moved on to highlight the reasons for continuation of the policy. Ms. Banerjee stated that the policy had a significant human cost, with an increase in cases of depression and mental health issues. The Zero-COVID policy also resulted in widespread disruption of supply chains on a global scale.  

The speaker cited several reasons why the strict Zero-COVID policy was maintained despite significant losses: to demonstrate the superiority of the Chinese political system over liberal democracies, to preserve the Government’s and Xi Jinping’s image, particularly ahead of the 20th Party Congress, and low efficacy of home-grown vaccines; and low vaccination rate among the elderly, etc.

During the initial outbreak, the Zero-COVID policy was widely supported by the domestic population. The phrase “not being a burden to the government” became prominent. However, people’s attitudes shifted over the course of two years. There was increasing concern that the Zero-COVID policy could be self-defeating. Global reaction exhibited a similar trend. Foreign investors were growing concerned about the policy’s impact on trade. Despite all this, in the 20th Party Congress, Xi reaffirmed China’s commitment to the Zero-COVID policy. The government did not roll-back most of the COVID restrictions until December 7, 2022.

Ms. Banerjee concluded her presentation by stating that the three years of Zero-COVID policy achieved very little as compared to the cost it extracted from the Chinese economy and society. It remains to be seen how China will manage to mitigate the implications left behind by the Zero-COVID policy.

Following the presentation, the Dr. Basu invited the Director General, Ambassador Chinoy to offer his comments.

Amb. Chinoy observed  that, at this point, China’s COVID policies appear to be jeopardising the world much more due to their unpredictability and the lack of transparency in decision-making. The Zero-COVID policy appears to be an extremely short-sighted, myopic decision. He emphasised that this is heavily influenced by the existing political system in China, where the CCP’s sole objective is to retain power.

He shared that the Chinese always carry out their actions as mass movements and it  is these mass movements that have altered the course of Chinese history. The element of control is indispensable to these mass movements. A pandemic, however, is not something the CCP can control. As a result, China has shifted to the dynamic Zero-COVID policy, demonstrating some flexibility in their approach to COVID-19.

Ms. Banerjee concurred with Amb. Chinoy’s comments and stated that the chaotic situation demonstrates that no exit strategy was planned by the CCP regarding its Zero-COVID policy.

Key Takeaways from the Q&A Session

Following Ambassador Chinoy’s remarks, MP-IDSA scholars were invited to join the discussion.

In response to a question about the rising number of cases in China and the possibility of a change in Chinese policy regarding the rejection of Western vaccines, Ms. Banerjee stated that the CCP has been steadfast in its opposition to Western vaccines. A question was raised about the disconnect between central and local government responses to the COVID19 pandemic. Ms. Banerjee stated that the Zero-COVID policy was primarily issued by the central government as a broad policy guideline, leaving its implementation to the various local governments.

Ms. Banerjee responded to a question about the reasons for the shift to the dynamic Zero-COVID policy by stating two possible reasons: growing frustration among Chinese citizens and higher transmissibility of the Omicron variant. In response to a question about the efficacy of Chinese vaccines and the implications for countries that have imported them, Ms. Banerjee stated that the efficacy of the vaccines must be considered in the context of herd immunity and vaccination of the elderly population.

Report prepared by Ms. Esha Banerji, Intern, East Asia Centre.