Iraq Elections-May 2018: Prospects and Possibilities
In the present form, Prime Minister Abadi looks set to emerge as the largest block but the chances of his coalition getting the required majority are slim.
- Published: May 08, 2018
In the present form, Prime Minister Abadi looks set to emerge as the largest block but the chances of his coalition getting the required majority are slim.
The AKP needs to go over the fundamentals of its decade long success in the country before it charts its future course. Its success in the previous decade was built on the pillars of national consolidation, economic growth and religious tolerance.
The Iran nuclear deal should not be seen in isolation. There has been a clear realisation in the West, especially in the US, that Iran needs to be brought out of international isolation and into the mainstream.
Nouri al-Maliki, the Shiite PM, seeking a third term in office, is facing growing opposition at home, including from his powerful Shia allies. There is also a growing rift within Maliki’s party members that his third consecutive political victory could marginalize them and strengthen his monopoly in the party as well as national politics.
The presidential elections come at a time when Iran is reeling under the pressure of sanctions and having been isolated in the region with the rise of Sunni Islamism.
The Taliban spring offensive is aimed at exploiting the situation and driving home the advantage. The present lull in coalition operations and indecision on the future outlook of international forces is adding to the Taliban’s advantage.
Post-Gaddafi Libya is in a phase of difficult transition. Lack of well-established political framework, threat of uncontrolled armed militias and conflicting regional and tribal identities and interests are making it extremely difficult for Libya to move ahead.
The US may have provided the support and platform for the apology, but it was something Israel had to do desperately as it was finding the developing regional situation difficult to handle with every passing day.
Along the short recent journey in discovery of friendly relations, Iran and Egypt have hit roadblocks that are not only ideological in nature but also illustrate their individual compulsions, conflicting national interests and complex regional dynamics.
Going by Netanyahu’s present term, the return of a stronger Right Wing coalition may lead to increased friction in the region and increased Israeli isolation as well.