Gulbin Sultana

Associate Fellow, Manohar Parrikar IDSA, Dr Gulbin Sultana’s commentary ‘IMF Assistance as a solution to Sri Lanka's Economic Crisis’ has been published by the Kalinga International Foundation on 28 April 2022.

Even though many in Sri Lanka breathe a sigh of relief at the government’s decision to approach the IMF, the negotiation itself does not imply immediate disbursement of the financial support. Successful negotiation and finalization of the deal will take another five to six months. In the meantime, Sri Lanka would require bridge financing of around US$ 3-4 billion, for which Sri Lanka is looking toward the bilateral partners and the World Bank, says r Sultana.

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• Published: 28 April, 2022

Associate Fellow, Manohar Parrikar IDSA, Dr Gulbin Sultana’s opinion piece, ‘Deepening crisis in Sri Lanka: An opportunity for India to displace China?’ has been published in First Post on 19 April 2022.

The piece analyses why expecting goodwill towards India to lead to a dampening of relations between Sri Lanka and China would be unrealistic.

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• Published: 19 April, 2022

Associate Fellow, Manohar Parrikar IDSA, Dr Gulbin Sultana’s Op-ed ‘Sri Lanka heading towards Political Instability amidst Economic Crisis’ has been published by Financial Express on 05 April 2022.

The economic crisis in Sri Lanka has caused political instability and tension which in turn has pushed the country towards more economic uncertainty creating a vicious circle of political economy, says Dr Sultana.

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• Published: 5 April, 2022

Associate Fellow, Manohar Parrikar IDSA, Dr Gulbin Sultana’s article ‘Ensuring energy security during foreign reserves crisis in Sri Lanka’ has been published in Financial Express on 23 March 2022.

Delay or non-implementation of many of the policy decisions have reduced Sri Lanka’s resilience to face any crisis in the energy sector. While the National policy and strategy of Sri Lanka has recognized some of the major hindrances and formulated plans to minimise those hindrances, the main focus of the government at this moment is ensuring the availability of fuel and cooking gas in the country for daily use, says Dr Sultana.

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• Published: 23 March, 2022

Depletion in foreign reserves has led to uncertainty about Sri Lankan government’s ability to account for import of essential items and debt servicing. Analyses of government’s policy measures and global geopolitical-economic developments suggest that a state of uncertainty is hovering over Sri Lankan economy.

• Published: March 10, 2022
• Issue Brief

Associate Fellow, Manohar Parrikar IDSA, Dr Gulbin Sultana’s commentary ‘Is India Gaining Influence in Sri Lanka?’ has been published by the Kalinga International Foundation on 22 February 2022.

At this critical juncture when Sri Lanka is seeking economic assistance as well as support at the 49th regular session of the UNHRC, it would not like to offend India. At the same time, Sri Lanka would not like to allow India to have an unfettered strategic influence in Sri Lanka due to the old perceived or misperceived fear of losing strategic autonomy despite receiving substantial economic assistance from the latter.

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• Published: 22 February, 2022

Chinese reaction to the Sri Lankan Ministry of Agriculture’s decision to cancel an organic fertiliser deal has demonstrated that China is not hesitant to take punitive action against Sri Lanka, if its interests are not fulfilled.

• Published: February 10, 2022
• Issue Brief

Research Analyst, Manohar Parrikar IDSA, Dr. Gulbin Sultana’s article ‘Wang Yi’s visit to the Maldives and Sri Lanka: Relevance and Outcome’ has been published in Financial Express on 18 January 2022.

The main purpose of the visit was to capitalise on the opportunities arising out of the economic and political vulnerabilities of Sri Lanka and the Maldives and further consolidate its influence in these two countries, says Dr. Sultana.

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• Published: 18 January, 2022

Research Analyst, Manohar Parrikar, Dr. Gulbin Sultana’s article ‘Sri Lankan Cabinet nods Joint Development of Trincomalee Oil Tank Farm with India’ has been published in Financial Express on January 05, 2022.

The Sri Lankan cabinet at the meeting held on 3 January 2022 approved the proposal presented by Sri Lankan Minister of Energy Udaya Gammanpilato implement the development project by a company named Trinco Petroleum Terminal Pvt. Ltd, says Dr. Sultana.

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• Published: 5 January, 2022

Sri Lanka, one of the most strategic islands in the Indian Ocean, is mired in several domestic political, security and strategic challenges since the end of the armed ethnic conflict in May 2009. However, with the defeat of the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE), and the post-war economic boom, it was largely believed that no one would shed tears anymore in the teardrop island. Such hopes and expectations were belied when the country witnessed multiple terror attacks in different locations in Colombo on 21 April 2019.

• Published: January 2022
• Strategic Analysis