Anshu Kumar asked: How should India deal with the increasing number of Chinese submarines in the Indian Ocean Region?

Abhay Kumar Singh

replies: Chinese naval presence in the Indian Ocean has been growing steadily since 2009 when PLAN’s (People’s Liberation Army Navy) flotilla joined the international effort to combat piracy in the Gulf of Aden. Since then, the protection of its maritime interests including maritime trade has been cited as justification for the permanent presence of PLAN in the Indian Ocean and its logistics support base in Djibouti.

In 2013, China announced that a Shang Class nuclear attack submarine would be deployed in the Indian Ocean as part of its naval flotilla for anti-piracy patrol in the Gulf of Aden. This was the first reported presence of a Chinese submarine in the Indian Ocean Region (IOR). Since then, Chinese submarines along with support vessels have been making regular forays into the Indian Ocean often along with of PLAN’s Anti-Piracy Escort Force (APEF) flotilla

Over the last 10 years, the deployment of Chinese research vessels and strategic satellite tracking ships has increased in the Indian Ocean region. The types of ocean surveys carried out by these vessels have research applications for energy resources and marine environments, but these hydrographic details can also be used for effective submarine deployment.

According to the US DoD ‘China’s Military Power Report 2022’, PLAN is ‘numerically’ the largest in the world. China operates around 60 submarines including 12 nuclear submarines. The total number of Chinese submarines will rise to 80 by 2035. Given China’s growing naval capabilities, forays by Chinese submarines may increase in future.

However, the landlocked geography of the Indian Ocean poses certain challenges for Chinese submarine deployment. Chinese submarines can enter the Indian Ocean through straits such as Malacca, Lombok, Sunda or Ombei-wetar straits. Submarines are obligated to traverse the Malacca Straits on the surface due to safety concerns. The Sunda Straits are very shallow, with a mean depth of 50 meters. Sandbanks, oil platforms in the Sunda shelf, and a large number of fishing vessels present significant navigation challenges for the submarine. While the Lombok Strait and Ombei-wetar are deep enough for submerged transit by submarines, sparse hydrographical details in these areas make navigation challenging.

Given these navigational constraints, Chinese submarines are often accompanied by submarine-tender ships during their deployment in the Indian Ocean which would be a deadly giveaway during operational deployment. Chinese vessels have been conducting ocean bed mapping along straits to facilitate submerged ingress into the Indian Ocean.

Unarguably, China’s growing subsurface presence in the Indian Ocean poses a strategic challenge to India. A key counter to this challenge would require comprehensive Underwater Domain Awareness (UDA), particularly around straits providing avenues for submerged ingress into the Indian Ocean.

UDA is a composite mixture of technologies, strategies, and policies designed to keep watch over everything under the sea and requires a coordinated system of satellites, seabed sensors, maritime patrol aircraft, anti-submarine warfare helicopters, unmanned systems, and submarines. Given the need for keeping a vast geographical area under constant surveillance, a region-wide UDA effort may need collaboration with partner countries.

Views expressed are of the expert and do not necessarily reflect the views of the Manohar Parrikar IDSA or the Government of India.