Comment & Briefs

If current trends are any indication, the global financial system will witness a unique 'first' in mid-October when China's foreign exchange reserves are expected to cross US$ 1 trillion.

The meeting between Prime Minister Manmohan Singh and President Musharraf on the sidelines of the Havana non-aligned summit is being projected as an important breakthrough on the issue of terrorism as well as with regard to the broad contours of Indo-Pak relations. The meeting was significant as it was held in the aftermath of the Mumbai blasts, which had led to some tough talk by India. This Indian outburst underlined the frustration and limits of its tolerance to Pakistan's continued support to terrorism.

The India-South Korea bilateral relationship is a remarkable example of how trade is the primary driver in global relationships. Ideology, which marked international relations in the previous decades, has given way to trade - which now is the international marker for relations. An important watershed in the relationship will be the beginning of construction for the POSCO integrated steel plant, which is slated to begin in April 2007 and would constitute the single largest foreign investment in India at US$ 12 b.

Thailand is once again at the crossroads of political uncertainty and the entry of the military in the affairs of the state has created a sense of instability. On September 19, 2006, the Thai armed forces dismissed the Thai Rat Thai Party government and revoked the country's 1997 constitution even though acting Prime Minster Thaksin Shinawatra has announced a state of emergency in Thailand. General Sondhi Boonyaratkalin, the army chief, has assumed prime ministerial powers till alternate political arrangements are made.

Terrorism has been wracking Jammu & Kashmir over the last two decades and the state has seen various shades of terrorist activities - from the violent aggressive phase involving fidayeen attacks on the camps of the security forces (SF) to the car bomb attacks that were witnessed last year to the present phase of grenade attacks, which can be considered a low cost but high impact option for the terrorists. Terrorist activities are presently more pronounced in the Kashmir Valley, whereas the number of terrorist initiated incidents have reduced in the Jammu region.

In his latest address to the Indian Council of World Affairs on India's regional policy, Foreign Secretary Shyam Saran reflected that the government had a long-term vision of an integrated South Asia, in which geographical boundaries would become irrelevant. With this in mind, New Delhi has put in place a number of measures to help connect with other countries in the region. Significantly, the Foreign Secretary's speech highlighted India's changing policies towards China.

Anxiety and uncertainty are perceptible even as Bangladesh prepares itself for the next elections scheduled for January 2007. As the incumbent BNP government prepares to transfer power to a caretaker government by the end of October 2006, there is a sense of visible unease about Bangladesh's political future, as many issues pertaining to these elections remain unresolved. It appears that a few issues need an amicable settlement before the ruling party hands over power to the caretaker government.

Despite the cease-fire, the Nepalese Maoists are busy collecting illegal taxes, besides carrying out abductions, extortion and forceful recruitment. They are consolidating their bases in urban areas where they had a very poor presence till April 2006, and are recruiting new cadres with the objective of setting up a communist society, if the peace talks fail. In the last four months, the strength of the Maoist armed cadres has increased from 29,000 to 35,000. While the Nepal Army is confined to its barracks, the Maoists are reportedly carrying their arms and moving freely.

The killing of Nawab Akbar Khan Bugti, popularly known as the "Tiger of Balochistan" in the early hours of August 27 in an army operation has ominous implications for the restive province. The tribal chief of the largest Baloch tribe, the Bugtis, was a strong proponent of Baloch autonomy, and had said that he had been a Baloch for several centuries, a Muslim for 1400 years but a Pakistani for just over fifty.

On August 15, 2006, the Chinese Foreign Ministry issued a statement strongly protesting Japanese Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi's latest visit to the Yasukuni Shrine. Koizumi’s six consecutive visits since he took office in April 2001 have chilled Sino-Japanese relations, making the issue a major stumbling block in the smooth development of relations. The souring of Sino-Japanese relations over the last few years has been a result of the complex enmeshing of two broad issues: history and power shift.