On 22 May 2024, the Manohar Parrikar Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses (MP-IDSA) organised a lecture by His Excellency Dr. Philipp Ackermann, Ambassador of the Embassy of the Federal Republic of Germany, under the Eminent Persons Lecture Series. The topic of the lecture was “Challenges in Europe and Indo-German Partnership”. The event was chaired by the Director General, Ambassador Sujan R Chinoy.

Executive Summary

The conflict in Ukraine has impacted the European continent including Germany. Germany has attempted to diversify its partners, which has ensured a reduction of its dependence on Russia. When it comes to India, Germany’s relationship with India has gained prominence, and it will continue to grow in the long term.

Detailed Report

The session began with the opening remarks from the Director General, MP-IDSA, Ambassador Sujan R. Chinoy who underscored the pivotal role of Germany as a critical player in the European Union and one of India’s most important strategic partners. He highlighted the various high-level dialogues that have taken place, including the visits of India’s Prime Minister to Germany in 2022 and the German Chancellor’s reciprocal visit in 2023, which have significantly bolstered bilateral ties. There has been a rise in trade and investment between the two nations. Germany’s foreign policy towards China was mentioned with a particular focus on the term de-risking, which is the recent focal point of the policy regarding China in Europe. Amb. Chinoy said that Germany is concerned about issues such as climate change, and illegal immigration and asked about the perspectives of the various political parties and ideologies.

Ambassador Dr. Philipp Ackermann began his talk by proposing that he would present a few key messages and five points regarding the topic. The first key point is that Europe faces challenges but in the last couple of years has shown resolve to overcome them. On the migration challenge, he stated that Europe is very popular among migrants, and migration is encouraged, but illegal migration from various nations is an issue. This has led to certain insecurities and ensured that a rise of the far right has become possible, which would be visible in the results of the upcoming European elections. Germany has an ageing population, so there is a need for migration. Germany has also signed a migration partnership with India and with the consent of the state and centre, is recruiting skilled labour for Germany from India. He emphasised the need to legalise and channel legal migration while ensuring that illegal migration is brought down.

The second challenge is the economic shock Germany suffered in the last two years due to the war in Europe. This support has been costly but it is a price that needs to be paid to support Ukraine. Ukraine is close to Germany, and the war has changed the texture of the European security structure and affected the cohesion of the European Union. Germany thought that any security structure in Europe could not be possible without Russia. Various avenues have been set up to deal with Russia, including the Russia-NATO Council. Russia’s reactions at present and its approach in 2014 have changed the mindset within Europe, and now the focus is on building a resilient security structure against Russia. The main reason for this is to ensure that Russia does not invade any other countries in Europe. Russia has a clear appetite to have more territory.

The second key point of concern is the Russia-Ukraine war. If Russia is not shown the limits of its actions, it will continue. Russian President Vladimir Putin has an expansionist mentality. NATO’s eastern front is not very strong and its deeper integration into the larger security structure is required to prevent any other aggression. Putin has miscalculated the unity of Europe, and Ukraine cannot be left alone, and its territory allowed to be taken away by Russia. The war has impacted the world, particularly in the energy sector. Germany paid the price since 50 per cent of its gas came from Russia, but now, after diversification, no gas comes from Russia. India has felt the impact of the war on various sectors, including fertilisers, gas, and oil.

The third key point is the India-Germany Partnership. India has gained a new weight in Germany’s foreign policy. India’s position is much higher, and the German Government has seen a need for like-minded partners. India’s democratic ethos and non-expansionist character are similar to what Germany feels. India and Germany have a sound strategic partnership, and the two nations can focus on all the areas of cooperation. Certain avenues include start-ups, academic research, and energy (hydrogen); the governments also want to intensify this cooperation. The inter-governmental consultations, which will happen in October 2024, would further strengthen the collaboration. Germany and India have cooperated in the sustainability of smart cities, biodiversity and trade. Already there are 2200 Indo-German companies who have invested in both the countries and there is hope for more investments.

The fourth key point is based on defence cooperation. There has been evident growth and a step forward in this area. Progress has been made in delivering military equipment, systems, arms, and supplying of aircraft. Joint exercises, capacity building, and information sharing have increased. In August 2024, for the first time, fighter jets would be sent by Germany to participate in Tarang Shakti Phase 1 exercise in Coimbatore. In October 2024, a German frigate would come to Goa and exercise with the Indian Navy. The two defence ministries share a strong relationship. This was underscored by the visit of the German Defence Minister in June 2023 and the signing of various tenders during that visit.

The fifth key point is focused on the Indian Ocean. Protecting international borders and oceans for free navigation is essential. We must keep the lines of communication in the open seas as safe as possible. Germany wants to promote a rules-based order protecting free and open trade. Germany and India can try to minimise the security challenges in the Indian Ocean together. China’s aggressive behaviour in the Indian Ocean concerns how China is attempting to expand its influence. For Germany, China is a partner and a competitor; when it comes to politics, it is considered a systemic rival.

Questions and Comments

Director General, Ambassador Sujan R. Chinoy inquired about Chinese Influence Operations in Europe, including Germany. Secondly, he asked whether Germany sees China as a long-term or immediate threat? Lastly, he asked whether Germany’s understanding of the rules-based order collides with their experience with China’s approach to a rules based order.

Ambassador Dr. Phillip Ackermann replied that China has firmly pushed its policy in academic institutions in recent years. This is done to shape and form an understanding of how China functions. In the case of a policymaker influenced by China, he gave an example of an individual who was a Chief of Staff of a Member of Parliament. Therefore, it shows how strongly China has influenced decision-making and policy-making. When it comes to cyberspace, the Russians participate more actively. For Germany, China and Russia are a threat as influence operators.

Dr. Swasti Rao asked if Germany believes in a de-risking policy vis-a-vis China and, if so, what steps should be taken. The Speaker answered that de-risking means encouraging and recommending the private sectors to de-risk. Germany cannot force them to not go to China; this was done with Russia, but it was easier since Russia is not an important economy. German companies have diversified and have begun focusing on the Asian arena, including India. Many German companies want to set up shop in India. German companies see India more as a brain than a muscle; therefore, the focus is more on investing in Rand D, technology and development sector.

Grp. Capt. (Dr.) Ajey Lele asked about German investments in the technology and space arena.

The Speaker emphasised that Germany is lagging behind in space, and the French are ahead. India needs to cooperate in this sector.

Dr. Rajorshi Roy asked about the European assessments of a scenario of a defeated Russia and its impact on regional security and stability.

The Speaker focused on the possibility that a period of frozen conflict would arise if the war did end, and he felt it wouldn’t end very soon. They would still need to deal with Russia. Russia did attack a sovereign country, and Russia did take 20 per cent of the land; this act cannot be accepted. The history of the First World War shows that humiliation was not a good option for better relations after the war ended. The priority is to support Ukraine in its legitimate fight to protect its territorial integrity.

Ms. Anandita Bhada enquired about how Germany plans to reduce dependence on China in the renewable energy sector. Secondly, with Germany’s attempts at energy diversification, whether Germany is looking at other energy partnerships soon?

The Speaker answered that we are much more diversified in the energy sector in the current period, and Germany is not dependent only on one source of energy. Germany gets its gas from Norway, the Gulf, etc. It has become a mixed basket.

Dr. Jason Wahlang asked how Germany sees the rise of the right-wing in the European Parliament. Secondly, how much influence does the Alternative for Germany party have in the Western side of Germany when it comes to immigration debates?

The Speaker stated that there will be a rise of right-wing parties in the European Parliament for many reasons. The far right is not as powerful as it seems; its percentage is about 15-16 percent. On the immigration question, Germany does not think immigration is a bad thing; they do not want illegal immigration. Twenty percent of German individuals have at least one non-German parent.

Dr. Rajiv Nayan enquired about the different perceptions of terrorism in India and Europe.

On the topic of terrorism, the Speaker explained that India has its own experience and Germany has its own. In this globalised world, there is a need to compare whether, for example, the Khalistan issue is taken more seriously only in India or other nations as well. Intelligence sharing is important, and there is a need to find ways to cooperate.

Ms. Shruti Pandalai asked whether China’s relationship with Germany limits its national policy in the Indo-Pacific. Secondly, how could a change in the White House’s leadership impact the future of the Trans-Atlantic alliance?

The Speaker opined that Germany was considered the least popular country in Europe in the first tenure of the Trump leadership. With any change in leadership in the United States of America, Germany would still find a way to work and function with this relationship.

Dr. Prashant Singh enquired about the perceived disunity between the United States and Europe regarding trade and investment with China.

The Speaker stated that Europe and Germany are wholly localised economies compared to the United States of America. It would appear that the de-risking has reduced German engagement with China.

Captain Sunil Tyagi, Centre for Air Power Studies, asked whether Russia would shift its attention to Georgia and Moldova after the Ukraine War.

Ambassador Dr. Philip Ackerman stated that Russia has, in a way, played with Georgia and Moldova. He feels that both countries can be seen as candidates for membership in the European Union, but their conflicts are very different.

The report has been prepared by Dr. Jason Wahlang, Research Analyst, Europe and Eurasia Centre, MP-IDSA.