Dr. Deepika Saraswat, Associate Fellow, West Asia Centre, Manohar Parrikar Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses (MP-IDSA), presented her Fellow Paper on “Iran in the Emerging (Eur)Asian Order: Mapping the Rise of a Regional Middle Power” at the MP-IDSA Fellows Seminar held on 26 October 2023. The Seminar was chaired by Professor Gulshan Dietl, former Professor, School of International Studies (SIS), Jawaharlal Nehru University. The External Discussants were Professor A.K. Ramakrishnan, Centre for West Asian Studies, SIS, Jawaharlal Nehru University and Dr. Meena Singh Roy, Senior Fellow (West and Central Asia), Tillotama Foundation. Dr. Rajorshi Roy, Associate Fellow, Europe and Eurasia Centre and Dr. Jason Wahlang, Research Analyst, Europe and Eurasia Centre, MP-IDSA, were Internal Discussants. Director General of MP-IDSA, Ambassador Sujan R. Chinoy and scholars of the Institute attended the Seminar.

Executive Summary

Three noteworthy trends delineate Iran’s emerging middle power behaviour. Firstly, there is a proactive involvement in Asian multilateralism, exemplified by active participation in regional institutions like the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO). Secondly, Iran employs an ideational strategy that leverages its civilisational identity and values as a foundation for nurturing an Asian regional security community. Thirdly, Iran strategically positions itself as a geographic-civilisational “bridge,” actively facilitating connections in transcontinental connectivity initiatives spearheaded by major powers, including China, Russia, and India. These trends collectively signify Iran’s role in shaping the geoeconomic landscape of (Eur)Asia.

Detailed Report

In his opening remarks, Ambassador Sujan R. Chinoy welcomed the Chair and the External and Internal Discussants. He emphasised the importance of Iran being a part of India’s close neighbourhood and how India’s Act West policy encapsulates geopolitical and civilisational relations. He stated that Iran has special significance in West Asian politics. Amb. Chinoy highlighted that Iran frequently remains in the news for one or other issues like being part of a long-drawn imbroglio in Yemen with the Houthi problem, Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), nuclear postures, bilateral relations with the US, and peace and security in the Persian Gulf. He outlined the role of Iran in the International North-South Transport Corridor (INSTC).

It was also noted that Iran has been a general outlier in the international system but gains a significant constituency when required. Its bilateral relations with India are mostly on a reciprocal basis. Amb. Chinoy recalled his tenure at the UN from 1992-1995 and specified that, particularly in 1994-95, Iran was instrumental in helping India counter Pakistan-backed human rights resolutions in Geneva.

Introducing the topic, Dr. Deepika Saraswat highlighted the context of Iran’s return to a ‘Look East’ strategy and emerging middle power behaviour. She stated that Iran preferred Eastern partnerships over the West, advocating closer ties with neighbouring nations and collaboration with countries sharing common goals. As a Persian country, Iran desired to find a home in Asia to overcome identity isolation. Iran’s preference for the term “West Asia” over “Middle East” indicates this transformative paradigm. Dr. Saraswat further pointed out that Iran strategically channels its investments in Asia, forging alliances with rising powers such as China, India, and Russia. Iran is seeing growing convergence between East, Central, West and South Asian regional systems. Dr. Saraswat highlighted the significance of Iran’s outlook in the evolving geopolitical landscape where mega connectivity projects are seen cooperatively, considering it an opportunity. Iran has placed development-security connections and regional connectivity at the forefront of its regional cooperation initiatives.

The Speaker outlined multiple definitions of middle powers to contextualise Iran’s position. Middle powers possess the military and strategic strength requisite to elicit support from great powers during peacetime. Although they may not emerge victorious against great powers in times of conflict, these middle powers can inflict disproportionate costs upon them. She articulated that being categorised as a middle power involves possessing specific capabilities, adopting a particular attitude, and asserting a distinct national identity.

To analyse Iran’s behaviour, Dr. Saraswat used the concept of emerging middle powers, especially in the post-Cold War era context. Emerging middle powers possess substantial relative power advantages over their smaller neighbours. These nations manifest dissatisfaction with their current standing and aspire to carve an independent trajectory guided by their interests, values, and ambitions for regional and global influence. Notably, many of these middle powers have historical and cultural backgrounds that align with the concept of civilisational states. She highlighted that revisionist emerging middle powers actively seek to reshape the prevailing international order, often aligning themselves with revisionist great powers in pursuit of their objectives.

Iran has positioned the “Look East” policy or “Asia orientation” as a central focus within incumbent Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi’s led foreign policy framework. The formalisation of Iran’s deepening engagement with Eur(Asia) was marked by its full membership approval in the SCO during the 21st summit, a development Dr. Saraswat identified as a significant milestone in Iran’s evolving regional strategy.

Positioned as a middle power, Iran has demonstrated several key behaviours, as outlined by the speaker:

Firstly, Iran has actively embraced “Asian multilateralism” by participating in regional institutions such as the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO). Initially joining as an Observer in 2004, Iran applied for full membership in 2008, ultimately achieving it in 2023. Dr. Saraswat contextualised this Iranian initiative within the institutional balancing framework, replacing conventional military means with a focus on leveraging multilateral institutions to gain power and influence in world politics. Ebrahim Raisi’s address at the UNGA in 2023, envisioning a novel and equitable world order rooted in regional cooperation, was cited as evidence of Iran’s commitment to this approach. The Speaker noted that the withdrawal of the United States from Afghanistan, coupled with the subsequent takeover by the Taliban, has not only highlighted the diminishing influence of the US in shaping the regional order but has also triggered a realignment in the regional geopolitical landscape. Iran’s involvement in the 3+3 regional cooperation format to resolve problems of the South Caucasus without the interference of extra-regional and Western countries is a part of its regional diplomacy.

Secondly, Iran has employed its civilisational identity and values to construct an ideational strategy to foster an Asian regional security community. Dr. Saraswat highlighted Iran’s practice of framing bilateral ties with Asian powers, including India and China, in civilisational terms. Iran’s leaders have offered a conception of Asia as comprising diverse civilisations and cultures, emphasising regional cultural and ideational autonomy and rejection of the Western normative universalism based on liberal democracy. The call for endogenous security and Asian unity by Iran was noted to align with the Chinese President’s ‘new Asian security concept,’ emphasising the leadership of Asians in Asian affairs. The Speaker also mentioned  Iran’s effort toward displacing Turkiye’s ethnic-linguistic narrative of pan-Turkism.

Thirdly, drawing from its notion of geographical centrality, Iran strategically positions itself as a geographic-civilisational “bridge,” actively connecting transcontinental connectivity initiatives spearheaded by China, Russia, and India. Iran considers itself a civilisational crossroad in the Silk Road narrative. The Speaker argued that Iran looks at the Chinese Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) with both optimism and fear as BRI proposes to address the development deficit but can have adverse geopolitical implications. BRI may lead to Russia-China’s ‘Great Game’ and can have implications for Iran’s transit potential and bargaining power in Central Asian energy markets. This role underscores Iran’s significance in facilitating broader regional cooperation and integration. Dr. Saraswat also emphasised Iran’s declared foreign-policy priority of developing friendly cooperative relations with Central Asian countries and its pivotal role as a ‘gateway’ in the INSTC. Furthermore, Iran’s ‘bridge’ role in projects such as BRI, the Eurasian Economic Union, and INSTC was underscored, emphasising the Iranian focus on the complementary nature of these initiatives rather than their competitive dynamics.

Dr. Saraswat noted that Iran is actively articulating a conspicuous regional role in (Eur)Asia by promoting regional autonomy, aligning with the shared objectives of Russia and China. Notably, Iran’s observable effort is to enhance its geoeconomic ties with the three principal actors in the region, namely China, Russia, and India. This strategic engagement aims to mitigate the potential challenges of multipolar rivalry and the prospect of Chinese-led hegemonic regionalism.

Prof. A. K. Ramakrishnan offered positive feedback on the paper, commending its logical argumentation and contribution to comprehending Iran’s (Eur)Asia policy. He suggested additional nuances to enhance the analysis, emphasising the need to highlight Iran’s quest for both strategic and regional autonomy. Encouraging the inclusion of major trends characterising emerging middle powers, he underscored the importance of considering major powers entering the geopolitical space as Iran navigates through it.

The impact of sanctions and isolation on Iran’s economy, along with resulting constraints in foreign relations, particularly with the West, was noted. Prof. Ramakrishnan stressed the significance of contextualising Iran’s power positioning as an Emerging Middle Power within the context of its historical isolation. He also highlighted the guiding principles of Iran’s foreign policy, focusing on its revolutionary nature and the pursuit of a dignified existence.

Further suggestions included exploring East-West dimensions, considering Iran’s call for unity and its role in the non-aligned movement within the paper. The importance of recognising Iran as an ideological state, with domestic politics playing a role in its ideological revivalism, was emphasised. The recommendation to include immediate neighbouring countries, including Afghanistan, aimed at providing a more comprehensive understanding of Iran’s foreign relations. Prof. Ramakrishnan concluded by stating the paper connects conceptual aspects with empirical descriptions and acknowledged the paper’s strength lies in capturing the intricate dynamics of Iran’s foreign policy.

Dr. Meena Singh Roy suggested that the author include a brief abstract and mention that the paper is part of a larger project. The need to clarify the theoretical focus in the title and introduce the hypothesis early on was emphasised. Dr. Roy commended the analytical rigour of the paper but recommended a reconsideration of subtitles for reader comprehension. Acknowledging the paper’s extensive use of primary references, she suggested supplementary readings for a practical understanding of Iran’s foreign policy. Dr. Roy highlighted Iran’s strategic adaptability and sophistication, emphasising the importance of understanding its use of strategic assets.

She proposed exploring how the international system perceives Iran, particularly its acceptability in regional groupings like the SCO. Additionally, Dr. Roy called for a precise analysis to determine whether Iran has attained emerging middle power status. It was suggested that concepts like emerging middle power should be explained early in the paper, along with clarifying Iran’s narrative regarding (Eur)Asia due to the region’s vastness. Addressing Iran’s regional interests, she recommended specifying its focus on the INSTC over the Silk Route and assessing its aspirations for regional power status.

Dr. Rajorshi Roy noted that the author has adeptly navigated the complexities of evolving issues, intricate power dynamics, and contestations within the paper. The incorporation of International Relations theories was noted as a strength, rendering the analysis more credible and nuanced in deciphering Iran’s role in (Eur)Asia. Dr. Rajorshi suggested expanding the section on emerging (Eur)Asian politics to include issues related to Central Asian countries, given their significant relevance. Additionally, he recommended examining whether Iran possesses the capacity to actualise its identity as a revisionist power and raised questions about whether Russia and China would relinquish space for Iran. Furthermore, Dr. Rajorshi underscored the importance of exploring the role of the SCO in the context of Eur(Asian) governance, considering it as a potential backbone in this regard.

Dr. Jason Wahlang raised the issue of the possibility of China overtaking Russia in the region due to Russia’s preoccupation with Ukraine, citing the Chinese base in Tajikistan as an illustrative example. Dr. Wahlang emphasised the importance of assessing whether Iran could capitalise on these shifting dynamics in the long term. Additionally, he recommended delving into Iran-Turkiye relations, particularly in terms of civilisational connections and cultural aspects. Dr. Wahlang highlighted Iran’s role as a Caspian nation alongside Kazakhstan and Russia, suggesting that further exploration of this aspect would enhance the paper’s value. He also proposed addressing Iran’s focus on non-traditional security issues, specifically related to water, considering the Aral Sea and Amu Darya.

Prof. Gulshan Dietl commenced her remarks with the poignant quote, “today is the best of times, and today is the worst of times,” emphasising Iran’s vulnerable position in its immediate neighbourhood. She recommended a clear definition of ‘(Eur)Asia,’ as it is integral to the paper’s title, and encouraged the author to provide her own interpretation of an emerging regional middle power.

Prof. Dietl highlighted the relevance of using ‘West Asia’ based on its geographical placement, referencing Jawaharlal Nehru’s critique of ‘Middle East’ as a colonial term. Considering Iran’s global impact, Prof. Dietl acknowledged its significant energy resources in proximity to Central Asia but underscored the challenges arising from linguistic and religious differences with neighbouring countries. This isolation, she noted, sheds light on Iran’s support for entities like Hezbollah, Houthis, and the Palestinians.

Prof. Dietl succinctly outlined challenges faced by Iran, including sanctions, which limit its foreign relations, domestic concerns over election outcomes, and controversies surrounding issues such as Hijab. She highlighted slogans reflecting domestic sentiments, such as “Not Gaza, Not Lebanon; I will die for Iran,” and observed Iran’s outreach to revisionist major powers like China and Russia. In the broader context of changing world order, Prof. Dietl emphasised the constraints faced by Iran, particularly domestic challenges, during a time when even the United Nations is under scrutiny.

Q&A Session

The Q&A session delved into various themes, encompassing Iran’s identity as a theological revolutionary state, the reliability of information about Iran on social media platforms, definitional and conceptual aspects of emerging middle power, the nuanced relationship between (Eur)Asia and the security order, the historical context of the Iranian revolution, Iran’s ideological positions in relation to other countries, and the constraints impeding Iran’s realisation of emerging middle power status. Dr. Saraswat addressed and responded to the comments and questions raised during this comprehensive discussion.

This report was prepared by Mr. Abhishek Yadav, Research Analyst, West Asia Centre, MP-IDSA.