Dr. Smruti Pattanaik, Research Fellow, South Asia Centre delivered a presentation on “Election and Opposition Politics in Bangladesh” in the weekly Monday Morning Meeting held on 12 February 2024. The meeting was moderated by Dr. Gulbin Sultana, Associate Fellow, South Asia Centre. Scholars of the Institute attended the event.

Executive Summary

The 12th General Parliamentary Election was held in Bangladesh on 7 January 2024. The Awami League has won elections consecutively for the fourth time since 2008 by winning 222 seats in the National Assembly. The current opposition party, the Jatiya Party managed to secure 11 seats. The main opposition party, Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) boycotted the elections. The BNP has taken a position that there cannot be free and fair election under the incumbent Election Commission of Bangladesh. In this election, voter turnout was about 40 per cent which was considerably low compared to the past elections.

Detailed Report

In her opening remarks, Dr. Gulbin Sultana offered a brief overview of Bangladesh Parliamentary Elections and politics of Bangladesh.

Dr. Smruti Pattanaik started the presentation by elaborating the facts and figures of the 12th Parliamentary Election and opposition politics. She said that the Awami League led by Sheikh Hasina has won the elections consecutively for the fourth time and out of 300 seats they won 222 seats in this election. 28 registered political parties participated in this election, and nearly 2000 candidates contested. Out of 437 independent candidates 382 were from Awami League, and many would believe that they were propped up as dummy candidates to give a semblance of competition. BNP boycotted this election by saying that free and fair election was not possible under the present Election Commission. In 2018, the BNP had contested the election and managed to win only 7 seats. The BNP put forward two preconditions for its participation – resignation of Sheikh Hasina and establishment of a caretaker government.

Further, Dr. Pattanaik said that the two principal political parties, Awami League and BNP, had equal vote share in the past and in Bangladesh, all anti-Awami League forces veer towards the BNP as an alternative. The BNP depended on the Western countries to pressurise the Awami League. It did not have cadres motivated enough to engage in street fights with the ruling party cadres and therefore, the BNP’s stance that it would not allow the election to happen remained merely on paper. After the rally on 28th November 2023 and subsequent violence many of the top BNP leaders were arrested and many went into hiding. BNP cadres were demoralised as there was no one to lead them from the front. BNP did not make any attempt to engage with India as they had done prior to 2018 elections, according to Ms. Pattanaik.

The Jamaat-e-Islami, an influential religious party in Bangladesh, also decided not to participate in this election. It had participated in the 2018 election as part of the broader alliance of opposition led by the BNP. Jamaat-e-Islami has been deregistered as a party in Bangladesh because its constitution militates against the Constitution of the country which is secular. However, JeI is not in a hurry to capture political power as they are interested in Islamisation of the society at large.

Dr. Pattanaik also discussed India’s relations with Bangladesh. During the G20 summit, India facilitated the meeting between the Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina and President Biden. Those groups who are opposed to Hasina in Bangladesh carried out an ‘India Out’ campaign in the social media. However, this campaign did not get traction as majority of the essential goods are imported from India. She attributed the growing anti-Indianism to the prevailing perception in Bangladesh that India is responsible for Hasina’s continuation in power in Bangladesh.

She also held that the ruling Awami League had empowered the paramilitary force of Bangladesh, the Ansar Bahini, giving it power to arrest and detain prior to the election. The US had imposed visa restriction on anyone – individual and entities – who were seen as obstructing free and fair election in Bangladesh.

Questions and Comments

After the presentation ended, the moderator opened the floor for questions and comments. There was a question about whether Bangladesh’s policies facilitated collaboration between the private industries of the two countries. There was also a question on the role of China and how the people in Bangladesh perceived its role and the relationship between the political parties and China. Another question from the floor was on how long Awami League could endure in power and if there was any possibility of Awami League toning down its anti-BNP stance. There was also a query about the people of Bangladesh’s views about the role of Japan, Russia, US and South Korea. Dr. Pattanaik responded to the comments and questions raised by the scholars of MP-IDSA.

Report prepared by Mr. Shailendra, Intern, South Asia Centre, MP-IDSA.