Dr. Ashish Shukla, Associate Fellow, Manohar Parrikar IDSA (MP-IDSA), spoke on “Formation of Government in Pakistan: Challenges Ahead” at the Monday Morning Meeting held on 04 March 2023. The session was moderated by Dr. Ashok Behuria, Senior Fellow, MP-IDSA. Ambassador Sujan R. Chinoy, Director General, MP-IDSA and the scholars of the Institute attended the meeting.

Executive Summary

Pakistan faced considerable hurdles both prior to and following its 2024 national elections. Following the elections, the formation of a government was a bit complex and tricky due to a number of reasons including a hung assembly amid allegations of electoral malpractice. This impasse prolonged political uncertainty as the parties could not agree on a power sharing formula. In the end, external pressure compelled parties to reach a consensus, underscoring the role of non-political entities in shaping political outcomes. These events highlighted the vulnerabilities of Pakistan’s democratic framework and governance mechanisms.

Detailed Report

In his opening remarks, Dr. Ashok K. Behuria offered a brief overview of recent developments in government formation and political dynamics in Pakistan. He said that contrary to expectations, political engineering resulted in bringing Shebaz Sharif instead of Nawaz Sharif at the front. He also highlighted Punjab’s significant influence on electoral outcomes and its implications for political stability in Pakistan.

Dr. Ashish Shukla began his presentation with Pakistan’s electoral history, marred by allegations of rigging and manipulation. He held that the December 1970 elections were the most free and fair elections in Pakistan’s political history. Speaking of the recent February 2024 election, he argued that the trend of not having a free and fair election continued amidst polarisation and volatility as the key opposition figures faced coercion and were arm-twisted to behave in a particular manner. The return of Nawaz Sharif from exile marked a significant development in domestic politics, and many questioned the way he became re-eligible to contest elections and lead his party. He also underlined the fact that Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) was denied its election symbol at the last moment leading to all its candidates being treated as independents. Instead of a fair contest among various political parties, the election seemed to have been a battle between PTI’s third-tier leadership and the security establishment. Dr. Shukla also noted that the electoral process lacked its usual vibrancy and enthusiasm, attributed to deliberate targeting of PTI, facilitation of Nawaz Sharif, fear of violence, and security concerns related to persisting terrorist threats.

Voter turnout remained an important indicator of democratic health, reflecting the electorate’s engagement in the electoral exercise. Dr. Shukla highlighted that the average voter turnout in Pakistan’s last 12 General Elections, including the most recent one, has been around 48.19%. While turnout has varied over the years, with the highest recorded in 1977 and the lowest in 1997, the recent elections witnessed a voter turnout of 47.8 per cent. Further, Dr. Shukla provided an overview of each party’s performance in various provinces. The election results showed PTI-independents securing 92 out of 266 available seats nationally, followed by Pakistan Muslim League- Nawaz (PML-N) with 75 seats, Pakistan People’s Party (PPP) with 54 seats, and Muttahida Qaumi Movement (MQM) with 17 seats. He expressed concern about the growing influence of hardliners like Tehreek-e-Labbaik Pakistan (TLP) in specific regions. Furthermore, he emphasised that despite attempts by the security establishment to limit PTI’s impact, PTI and Imran Khan retained their significance, with their numerical vote share increasing alongside PML-N, PPP, and MQM. Dr. Shukla also highlighted the underperformance of religious parties such as Jamaat-e-Islami (JI) and Jamiat Ulema-e-Islam (JUI), while new political entities like PTI-P encountered huge setbacks.

Throwing light on the process of government formation in Pakistan, he noted that no single party secured majority. He assessed that despite attempts by major parties like PTI and PML-N to lead, disagreements persisted, leading to a deadlock in negotiations, particularly between PML-N and PPP. However, a stern warning from the establishment compelled them to reach an agreement, facilitating progress in government formation.

Discussing the challenges before the State, Dr. Shukla said that the new government in Pakistan faces a complex array of challenges on multiple fronts. He said that the external support offered by the PPP weakens the Prime Minister’s position, raising doubts about the government’s stability and ability to govern effectively. Additionally, disputes over the electoral process have led to protests by the opposition, particularly the PTI, further contributing to political instability. Economic challenges, including high external debt and the need for IMF support, add to the government’s woes.

Furthermore, he assessed that internal security concerns are heightened by the resurgence of militant groups like the Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP), fuelled by developments in neighbouring Afghanistan. Tensions with Afghanistan and the risk of missteps in foreign policy, particularly concerning India, pose significant threats to regional stability. Balancing relations with key players like China and the United States is essential for economic stability and security in Pakistan. Overall, he underlined that the government must navigate these challenges carefully to ensure stability and progress in the country.

Questions and Comments

Ambassador Sujan R. Chinoy, DG, MP-IDSA complimented Dr. Shukla’s comprehensive presentation, while emphasising the importance of understanding Pakistan’s internal dynamics. Following this, he posed a series of questions and observations regarding the challenges facing the new government. These queries ranged from how the government plans to navigate the complex legal environment to the evolving role of the army in Pakistan’s democratic landscape. He also asked about potential initiatives the new government might undertake in its relations with India, considering the need for innovative approaches to regional security.

Additionally, the scholars raised pertinent points about the challenges confronting the new government, behaviour of voters during elections, public perception about the army and Pakistan’s domestic as well as international priorities post- government formation.

Dr. Ashish Shukla responded to the comments made by the Director General and the questions raised by MP-IDSA scholars.

Report prepared by Ms. Sneha M, Research Analyst, South Asia Centre, MP-IDSA.