Dr. Deepika Saraswat, Associate Fellow, Manohar Parrikar IDSA, presented on “Iran-Israel Confrontation: Escalation Amid the Gaza War” at the Monday Morning Meeting held on 22 April 2024. Dr. S Samuel C Rajiv, Associate Fellow, Manohar Parrikar IDSA, moderated the session. Scholars of the Institute attended the meeting.

Executive Summary

The tit-for-tat exchanges between Israel and Iran starting 1 April 2024 have heightened tensions in the region. The presentation gave an overview of the escalation of the ‘Shadow War’ between the two countries. It provided an understanding of Iran’s strategies of the ‘Axis of Resistance’ and the ‘Unification of Arenas’ and Israel’s strategy of ‘Octopus Doctrine’ and threat perception of a ‘Ring of Fire’. The recent events have displayed that Iran is willing to take the risk of directly striking Israel, and this constitutes the new normal.

Detailed Report

Dr. Saraswat began the presentation by providing an understanding of Iran’s strategies from the ‘Axis of Resistance’ to the ‘Unification of Arenas’. The Iranian strategy of Axis of Resistance, an asymmetric strategy, emerged as a counter to the US designation of Iran as a member of the ‘Axis of Evil’. Iran has made the Israel-Palestine issue the centrepiece of its Axis of Resistance strategy, where it has supported groups like Hamas and Palestinian Islamic Jihad since the early 1990s, and Hezbollah since the 1980s. The Axis of Resistance allows Iran to expand its deterrence way beyond its geographical borders. Iran wants to fight threats even before they reach its borders. Iran also follows a strategy of war avoidance, where it wants to avoid any direct war with the US, but at the same time deter its adversaries from attacking. Dr. Saraswat noted the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps’ (IRGC) mobilisation of Shia militias in Iraq and Syria to fight ISIS, which posed a threat to Iran.

The Speaker observed that in the absence of a proper air force, the Iranian missile program is a key pillar of its forward defence strategy. The IRGC’s missile force has emerged as a major branch over the years. Iran has focused more on enhancing the precision strike capabilities of its missiles. The missiles have a range of around 2000 km so as not to antagonise the Europeans, but the range covers the whole of the Middle East region thus placing the US military bases in the region within its strike capability.

Dr. Saraswat noted that the Iranian strategy of the Unification of Arenas is more visible in the aftermath of the 7 October 2023 attacks by Hamas on Israel, which was followed by the integration of Hezbollah from Lebanon, the Shia militias in Iraq, and the Houthis in Yemen into the campaign against Israel. Iran has supplied precision missiles to Hezbollah, while Hamas has demonstrated its capacity to launch thousands of unguided rockets.

The Speaker then highlighted Israel’s ‘Octopus Doctrine’ and threat perception of a ‘Ring of Fire’. Israel’s Octopus Doctrine is based on the principle that Iran is the head of the octopus, while the proxy militias that it supports are its tentacles. This strategy has now evolved into directly attacking Iranian personnel in Syria and Iraq, and not just proxies like Hezbollah. Israel has opposed the Iranian nuclear program and has always portrayed Iran as a threat so as to keep the US involved in the region alongside Israel. The concept of Ring of Fire is based on the surrounding of Israel by Iranian-backed forces, with Hezbollah in Lebanon, Hamas and Islamic Jihad in Gaza, and foreign militias in Syria, and it is the Israeli counter to Iran’s Axis of Resistance.

Dr. Saraswat spoke at length about the Shadow War tactics applied by Israel on Iran, which gathered pace in the wake of the US’s ‘Maximum Pressure’ campaign against Iran. She flagged the July 2020 explosion that hit a centrifuge assembly facility near the city of Natanz. Israel has also carried out targeted assassinations of Iranian nuclear scientists over the past decade. Israeli intelligence seems to have penetrated Iranian society as shown by attacks and assassinations of security figures inside Iran. Shadow war has been persistent in the cyber domain with tit-for-tat cyberattacks on civilian infrastructure. The shadow war has also played out in the sea where Israel has attacked Iranian oil tankers and also shipments of weapons to Syria and Hezbollah. Iran has also retaliated with attacks on Israeli-linked shipping companies like the Zodiac Maritime in the Gulf of Oman.

Israel’s attack on the Iranian Consulate has set new rules of engagement, as per the Speaker. Iran’s retaliatory strikes on Israel have shown Iranian capability to directly strike Israel. The Israeli counter response has not majorly escalated the existing tensions, and has been seen as ‘de-escalatory’ in Iran.

Dr. Saraswat concluded by stating that the situation remains de-escalatory as of now, as the US wants to avoid any regional war at this time. She stated that recent events have ensured that Iran’s asymmetric strategies seems to have run their course and in response to Israel’s direct targeting of Iranian soil, Iran is willing to take the risk of directly striking Israel, and this constitutes the new normal.

Questions and Comments

Dr. Rajiv Nayan in his remarks pointed out that the Iran-Israel conflict retains significant asymmetric contours given that non-state armed groups still constitute a critical element of Iran’s strategy to counter Israel. The Houthis and the Hezbollah were also involved in the direct coordinated attacks against Israel.

A number of important queries and comments were made regarding Iran’s nuclear capability, its missile defence program and its aspiration for the leadership of the Islamic world. Questions were also raised about why Israel’s retaliatory attacks were non-escalatory and why it did not take the chance to destroy Iran’s nuclear facilities. The role of the US in the conflict and whether Israel wanted the involvement of the US in a larger way was also questioned.

Dr. Deepika Saraswat gave comprehensive responses, addressing the comments and questions from the Institute’s scholars. She emphasised that the decision to develop a nuclear weapon is a political one and Iran might not be willing to take that risk easily. She also emphasised on how the Iranians have put their best bet on their missile defence systems for their security. She reiterated that the current situation displays the new normal and also points out that the US does not want to risk a regional war at the moment.

After the Q&A session, the Chair gave his closing remarks and ended the meeting.

Report was prepared by Mr. Farhan Khan, Intern, West Asia Centre, MP-IDSA.