On 23 January 2023, Ms. Shruti Pandalai, Associate Fellow, MP-IDSA, made a presentation on “Key Developments in the Indo-Pacific: Perceptions in South East Asia” at the Monday Morning Meeting. Cmde. Abhay Kumar Singh (Retd.) moderated the session. Ambassador Sujan R. Chinoy, the Director General of MP-IDSA, Maj. Gen. (Dr.) Bipin Bakshi (Retd.), the Deputy Director General of MP-IDSA and scholars of the Institute were in attendance to enrich the discussion.

Executive Summary

With China’s aggressively increasing interest in global leadership, the Indo-Pacific region still serves as the pivot of global geopolitics. Leading powers in the region are expected to demonstrate political will and capability as nations, large and small, try to offset the effects of increasing strategic competition. The quest for chances for practical cooperation, a rethinking of security and a balance between economic and security cooperation with the rise in militarization are some important trends that are apparent from the region’s expanding geopolitics. As observed, there are concentrated endeavours to strengthen the capabilities of Indo-Pacific nations in order to provide them with realistic alternatives that go beyond binaries created around ideological and political contestation.

Detailed Report

Cmde. Abhay introduced the topic with a brief overview of the developments concerning Southeast Asia and the Indo-Pacific in the recent past. Thereafter, he invited Ms. Shruti Pandalai , the speaker, to make a presentation on the subject.

Ms. Pandalai began by noting the continuance of the strategic high tide in the Indo-Pacific, which has been long in the making. Many nations have been working in different combinations and permutations to make sure that a shared foundation for cooperation in the region emerges. She stated that the goal of these efforts is to create an equal, rule-based system in which unilateralism is restrained. Ms. Pandalai highlighted a few broad trends that have emerged with distinguishable features in the Indo-Pacific region.  The first broad trend highlighted by her was “issue-based coalition” which is driven by function. The collaboration of like-minded nations in bilateral, multilateral, and plurilateral forms was the second trend Ms. Pandalai emphasised.  Focused effort on capacity building of Indo-Pacific countries was another broad trend highlighted by Ms. Pandalai.

According to Ms. Pandalai, the conflict in Ukraine, the escalation of the cross-Strait problem, and China’s threatening activities in the South China Sea have all helped raise awareness of the Indo-Pacific region and the QUAD’s capacity to deliver on both the economic and security fronts.

Further, Ms. Pandalai provided insights regarding key developments in the later part of 2022 vis-à-vis Indo-Pacific. National Defense Authorization Act for Fiscal Year 2023, which was passed into law, is intended to strengthen the strategic depth and material capability of Washington’s defence strategy, according to Ms. Pandalai.

Ms. Pandalai observed that the Indo-Pacific region is closely watching Biden’s signature achievements such as Inflation Reduction Act and the CHIPS Act. According to Ms. Pandalai, these decisions have created significant friction with US allies in Europe and Asia. This was substantiated by citing articles wherein the EU, South Korea and the Director General of WTO have criticised these legislations. Ms. Pandalai held that these legislations by the US are seen by the countries in the region as “re-shoring” over “friend-shoring”. Ms. Pandalai also discussed various overtures to Southeast Asia which have been offered by the US recently.

Further, Ms. Pandalai highlighted the three transformational security documents that were released by Japan recently. Ms. Pandalai pointed out three reasons for the change in Japan’s attitude which include the recent behaviour and activities of three revisionist powers China, North Korea and Russia. The National Security Strategy, as pointed out by Ms. Pandalai, has received mixed reactions from South Korea and certain Southeast Asian countries. Regarding further bolstering of Japan-US alliance through new agreements and meetings, Ms. Pandalai held that the summits sent out a clear message about bilateral security commitments being of prime importance for both the US and Japan and that this alliance is regarded by both countries as an instrument to project their combined influence to promote stability in the region.

Further, Ms. Pandalai highlighted the increased cooperation between Australia and the US in various domains ranging from security to climate cooperation through ministerial consultations like AUSMIN.  Ms. Pandalai opined that the notion of strategic equilibrium that has been proposed by Australian Foreign Minister Penny Wong was necessary as Southeast Asian and Pacific countries have been sceptical in choosing any formal alliance or coalition. Ms. Pandalai also highlighted Australia’s outreach efforts to South Pacific countries like the Solomon Islands and Vanuatu along with the latest overtures to ASEAN.

Ms. Pandalai also highlighted recent changes in the relationship between India and ASEAN as it evolved into a complete strategic alliance. Ms. Pandalai stated that ASEAN and India have decided to strengthen their maritime links and work together to combat cybercrime, transnational crime, and terrorism. Ms. Pandalai emphasised South Korea’s ambitious Indo-Pacific strategy, highlighting the country’s commitment to enhancing supply chain ties with Southeast Asia and the rise in arms exports to the region.

With regard to the current scenario of the US-China relationship, Ms. Pandalai contended that Southeast Asia is concerned about the guardrails in the relationship between these two giants which is at risk of irreversible damage. Ms. Pandalai held that the Southeast Asian nations will move pragmatically when it comes to sharing benefits with China and would be vigilant at the same time when it comes to asserting their agencies. Ms. Pandalai also cited a report regarding the dwindling of Southeast Asia’s public support to China as compared to the US.

With respect to ASEAN’s perspective on the Taiwan issue, Ms. Pandalai stated that ASEAN holds a “One China Policy”. Ms. Pandalai also highlighted the various approaches of ASEAN countries to the Ukraine situation at the G20 Summit and claimed that ASEAN has consistently refrained from criticising Russia while also showing greater consideration for Russia.

Regarding the South China Sea issue, Ms. Pandalai stated that breakthroughs are unlikely in the negotiations on SCS ‘code of conduct’ this year because currently, Southeast Asia has its own economic priorities. Ms. Pandalai was of the opinion that SCS will continue to face twin dynamics of confrontation and cooperation.

 With regard to the question of Southeast Asia’s cooperation on the Indo-Pacific issue, Ms. Pandalai stated that ASEAN is open to QUAD’s involvement in the region, though in tandem with ASEAN centrality. In concluding remarks of her presentation, Ms. Pandalai held that India and ASEAN can lean on each other as India rejects any bloc kind of security cooperation.

Following the presentation, Cmde. Abhay invited the Director General, Ambassador Chinoy to offer his comments Amb. Chinoy observed that, though late, now the US looks at Southeast Asia in terms of its economic and developmental needs whereas earlier it looked at the region largely from the lens of security.  Amb. Chinoy also highlighted that now China due to its enormous resources has got a strong presence in the region and that Southeast Asia’s likeness to China is greater as compared to the USA. Also, Amb. Chinoy contended that Southeast Asia wants to manage the relationship with both US and China and would not simply bandwagon. While concluding, Amb. Chinoy emphasised further development of relations not only with ASEAN collectively but also at the individual level, with the Southeast Asian countries.

Maj. Gen. (Dr.) Bipin Bakshi (Retd.) also made observations about the major happenings in the region and contended that these vigorous activities by different stakeholders in the Indo-Pacific mark turbulent times for global geopolitics.

Q & A Session

When the floor was opened for Q&A sessions, a scholar asked a question regarding the relevance of ASEAN centrality and ASEAN’s views of US engagement on economic issues. Responding to these questions, Ms. Pandalai observed that since assuaging of ASEAN’s concerns by QUAD countries, repeated efforts have been made to keep ASEAN at the centre of decision-making vis-à-vis the Indo-Pacific. On the issue of ASEAN’s need for the US, Ms. Pandalai held that the US is vital for the economic development of Southeast Asia as recently most of the ASEAN countries became a signatory of the US’ initiated Indo-Pacific Economic Framework for Prosperity.

On the question of whether the Ukraine conflict has diverted US attention away from the Indo-Pacific, Ms. Pandalai responded that this hasn’t been the case so far.

This report was prepared by Mr. Mohammed Shoaib Raza, Intern, Southeast Asia and Oceania Centre, MP-IDSA.