Dr. Vishal Chandra, Research Fellow, Manohar Parrikar Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses (MP-IDSA), spoke on “India’s Continued Engagement with Afghanistan: Looking Forward” at the Monday Morning Meeting held on 06 March 2023. The session was moderated by Dr. Ashok K. Behuria, Senior Fellow, and Coordinator of the South Asia Centre, MP-IDSA. Ambassador Sujan R. Chinoy, the Director General of MP-IDSA, Maj. Gen. (Dr.) Bipin Bakshi (Retd.), the Deputy Director General of MP-IDSA and scholars of the Institute were in attendance.

Executive Summary

Twenty years after being ousted from power by forces of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO), the Taliban regained control of Afghanistan in 2021. Since taking office in 2021, the Taliban-led regime in Afghanistan has been diplomatically isolated; not a single country has yet formally recognised their government. Violence against ethnic minorities, disrespect for women’s rights, and violations of civil liberties are just a few of the problems that continue to mar the Taliban’s regime in Afghanistan. Moreover, internal ethnic conflict and power struggles within the Taliban, ties to terrorist groups like Al-Qaeda and the Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan (TTP), and recurrent attacks by the Islamic State Khorasan Province (ISKP) have harmed Afghanistan’s security situation and put the Taliban under pressure in their own backyard. Thus the poor socioeconomic indicators as well as a worsening of security conditions point to a gloomy future. India, a vital supporter of Afghanistan’s development and prosperity, has remained close to the country despite numerous challenges and has gained the respect of the Afghan people. New Delhi chose a people-centered approach meant to support the development and well-being of the ordinary Afghan citizen.

Detailed Report

In his opening remarks, Dr. Ashok K. Behuria offered a brief overview of how the Taliban had regrouped in rural Afghanistan and all along the Afghanistan-Pakistan border regions, and had returned to power in Afghanistan in August 2021. Dr. Behuria added that the Taliban had faced multiple challenges since reclaiming control in 2021, including a crisis of legitimacy as well as economic and security issues. He emphasised that despite having to cope with numerous security and economic challenges, the Taliban were deftly handling the deteriorating economic situation and had made some progress in lowering the number of terrorist attacks and casualties in Afghanistan. He emphasized that despite regional and global obstacles, India should continue to support the people of Afghanistan.

Dr. Vishal Chandra began his presentation by highlighting the fact that since no government has recognised the Taliban regime in Afghanistan, the Taliban are working very hard to gain international legitimacy, and that other countries’ were very circumspect in engaging the Taliban. The country is currently experiencing a severe humanitarian and security crisis following the Taliban taking back control of Kabul. There are 28.3 million people in need of humanitarian relief and support, 14.7 million of whom are in acute need. Among the 28.3 million people in need, 6.4 million women and 15.2 million children require immediate humanitarian help. Dr. Chandra observed that the number of persons in need has dramatically risen from 24.4 million in 2022 to 28.3 million in 2023. He pointed out that 75% of Afghanistan’s total state spending was on aid and support from abroad, citing the UNDP 2022 study.

While humanitarian relief is trickling in, not quite to the satisfaction of the Taliban and the Afghan people, the country is also experiencing a serious security crisis and violent outbursts, which are being coordinated by the ISKP and other terrorist organisations. He stated that in addition to ISKP, there are other ultra-orthodox Taliban factions that either question the legitimacy of the current Taliban leadership or oppose some of its policy goals. He also informed the audience that ethnic groups that had earlier collaborated with the Taliban and coordinated operations against NATO forces (because they shared similar ideologies) were at the moment vying for control over resources, influence, and positions. However, he noted that despite the constant attacks against the Taliban regime and their patrons, the Taliban seemed to have prevented the situation from getting out of control; but it is uncertain how long Taliban will be able to maintain their control over diverse forces exercising their influence in Afghanistan. The failure of Taliban leaders to incorporate non-Pashto tribes in its administrative and policy establishment continued to be a significant obstacle for them, in addition to the ISKP threats, he said.

Despite these challenges, Dr. Chandra was of the opinion that the Taliban were trying their best to manage the economy by raising domestic taxes, particularly through customs duties, as well as through informal and conventional levies on mining, transportation, and agriculture, which have increased with a crackdown on corruption. Afghanistan also exports coal to Pakistan.  The Taliban have also made it clear that their government would pose no risks to India or other nations in the region, and they have promised that their territory would not be used as a base for terrorist attacks against other countries. Mr. Vishal emphasised that the Taliban’s relationships with Al-Qaeda, the TTP, and other designated militant groups, however, remained intact, and it was unclear how they were planning to maintain such relationships while pursuing international legitimacy.

Given this, Mr. Chandra said it has posed a very interesting dilemma for India whether it could engage the people of Afghanistan without engaging the Taliban. He argued that because of India’s centuries-old cultural and civilizational ties to Afghanistan, there is strong sympathy among Afghan civilians for India. This has, over the years, not only helped India to acquire the trust of Afghans cutting across ethnic lines but also to maintain its neutral position despite significant political and security upheavals over the years. India’s present commitment, he emphasized, was primarily focused on infrastructure, humanitarian relief, and developmental aid.

According to Dr. Chandra, India has remained the largest regional contributor of aid for Afghanistan’s development and humanitarian assistance. Since 2001, India has adopted a multi-sectoral aid strategy that includes both large and small-scale projects and covers all regions of Afghanistan. Large-scale infrastructure projects include the construction of the Afghan Parliament, the 218 km road from Zaranj to Delaram, and the construction and commissioning of the Salma Dam power plant in the province of Herat.

Dr. Chandra stated that India had also been the driving force behind numerous short-term community-based development initiatives that emphasised local ownership and management and covered agriculture, rural development, education, health, and vocational training, including the renovation of Kabul’s Habibia School. These community-based initiatives have a clear, immediate effect on the daily lives of the people. For instance, the Indian Council for Cultural Relations (ICCR) sponsors a large number of yearly long-term university scholarships for Afghan students studying in India for undergraduate and graduate degrees. India similarly offers vocational training to Afghan women and youth. India also offers initiatives to improve capacity in the areas of agricultural research, healthcare, and rural development. Recently, India provided 40,000 of wheat and 500,000 doses of COVID-19 vaccine. India, therefore, has maintained its policy of “staying the humanitarian course” in Afghanistan after the Taliban seized control again in 2021.

Dr. Chandra concluded that India had gained knowledge and experience of working in Afghanistan’s challenging political and security environment over the years. Notwithstanding practical difficulties, he pointed out that India had largely been successful in dealing with Afghanistan, regardless of the ideological leanings of Afghan regimes, with the exception of the first Taliban rule (1996-2001). In addition, he stated that India does not have any parochial foreign policy goals in Afghanistan and that because India has been more responsive and adaptable to local circumstances, it has been able to preserve both trust and people-to-people ties over time. In order to continue its aid and assistance initiatives in Afghanistan, he urged India to send a humanitarian envoy to Kabul.

Comments and Questions

The floor was opened for questions and comments. The Director General, Ambassador Sujan R. Chinoy, the Deputy Director General, Maj. Gen. (Dr.) Bipin Bakshi (Retd.), and scholars from the Institute contributed to the discussion. In his remarks, Ambassador Chinoy pointed out that the conflict in Ukraine has diverted attention from the Taliban, which has allowed them to consolidate their regime in Afghanistan. He stressed that there was still potential for an internal Taliban fault-line to blow up at some point, which might lead to further instability. He added that the alleged death of an ISKP commander of Kashmiri descent in Afghanistan was excellent news for India. India, he continued, must maintain its humanitarian aid efforts while keeping an eye on political and security developments in Afghanistan.

Report prepared by Dr. Mohd. Usman Bhatti, Research Assistant, MP-IDSA.