India China War unlikely: Professor Kanti Bajpai
November 30, 2011
New Delhi, Nov 30, 2011: His Excellency, Shri NN Vohra, Governor, Jammu and Kashmir, on Wednesday said it is on India and China’s political leadership to put together an approach which is harmonious with India China defence strategy, External Affairs etc to strengthen the relationship between the two countries. Shri Vohra was chairing the second YB Chavan Memorial Lecture organised by The Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses (IDSA) in collaboration with the Yashwantrao Chavan Pratishthan (Mumbai).
The annual lecture is organised in the memory of Mr Y. B. Chavan, former Defence Minister of India and one of the founder fathers of IDSA.
Earlier, delivering a lecture on ‘India and China – Can The Giants of Asia Cooperate’, Professor Kanti Bajpai, visiting professor, Lee Kuan Yew School of Public Policy National University, Singapore, said that though war is always a possibility in the international system, it seems unlikely between India and China, for at least four reasons – Both sides are equipped with Nuclear weapons, thus have to practice extreme caution, secondly, both sides have airpower that will make a conventional war of any duration and decisiveness very difficult, thirdly, while China has the advantage of the heights on the Tibetan plateau, its ability to send large forces into India in this sector is limited by geographical constraints and fourthly the Tibetan instability will prevent China from opting for warfare against India.
He further said that since former Prime Minister, Rajiv Gandhi’s famous trip to China in 1988, the two countries have worked consistently to put in place a diplomatic, political, military, and economic system to maintain stability and lay the foundation for a border settlement, as well as normalization. He added that the system has four components or pillars: Border Negotiations, High-level Summits, Confidence-Building Measures and Bilateral Trade.
With respect to border negotiations, he said that neither leadership has the political capital to shepherd a final agreement through its political systems, hence a settlement must await the future.
Speaking on the second pillar, he said that there have been more summits between the presidents, prime ministers and foreign ministers of the two countries since 1988 than in the previous forty years.
The third pillar of stability is confidence building measures or CBMs, he reiterated, adding that The India-China CBM menu is rich and probably does not need too many additional items. However, the two sides should still give some thought to nuclear weapons and naval CBMs.
Further, speaking about the fourth pillar – Bilateral Trade – he said that both the nations see trade as mutually beneficial and as having stabilizing political effects. Given that trade will grow substantially, the two countries should expect it to contribute to their pragmatism.
Further throwing light on China’s closeness with Pakistan, Professor Bajpai said that the Pakistan problem grew partly out of the border quarrel. As China’s relations with India worsened in the 1950s, its appreciation of Pakistan grew apace. Besides Pakistan is strategically located at the mouth of the energy-rich Gulf and is also an important partner for China in the Islamic world.
However, he maintained that the Chinese economic aid to Pakistan has been rather modest, in comparison to the bilateral and multilateral aid that the country has received from other sources.
Professor Bajpai was speaking on how India and China can deal with the stress and strain that may come from their sustained rise to power. Concluding the lecture he said that India and China could do well to look at a wide-ranging, institutionalized form of long-term cooperation. On this may depend the welfare of three billion people and the stability of Asia and international order.
Also present were Dr RD Pradhan and Shri Ajit Nimbalkar from the YB Chavan Trust, Mumbai.
