The danger of nuclear terrorism and ways to thwart it, tackle it and manage it in the event of an attack is increasingly gaining the attention of nuclear analysts all over the world. There is rising awareness among nuclear experts to develop mechanisms to prevent, deter and deal with the threat of nuclear terrorism. Nuclear specialists are seeking to develop and improve the science of nuclear forensics so as to provide faster analysis during a crisis.
Ever since India and Pakistan conducted nuclear tests in 1998, Western media reports have constantly highlighted the dramatic increase in Pakistan's production of nuclear fissile materials and nuclear warheads. Reports published at end of January in the New York Times and the Washington Post are a case in point. These reports, quoting serving and retired US administration officials, mentioned that the latest US intelligence assessments have concluded that Pakistan has been steadily expanding its nuclear arsenal – particularly since President Obama took office in 2009.
The nuclear non-proliferation paradigm 1 has rarely remained static. Its logic or the underlying principle has however been singular – non-proliferation should lead to nuclear disarmament, and eventually total elimination. It is the approach to the paradigm that has evolved over the years, often accentuated by, and many a time succumbing to, the transformations in the global security environment. Milestones in this evolution have often been construed as shifts in the paradigm, as newer security imperatives necessitated augmentations in existing approaches to proliferation challenges.
The former defence minister Shri Yeshwantrao Chavan led a delegation to the United States in May 1964 to discuss American support for the Indian Defence Five-Year Plan. The delegation included among others, the then defence secretary Shri P.V.R. Rao. Both Shri Chavan and Shri Rao were very impressed by the quantitative and analytical approach adopted by the US Defense Department and on their return, initiated discussions in the Ministry of Defence (MoD) to explore the possibility of setting up a ‘think tank’ on the lines of the RAND Corporation.
Non-proliferation is now an accepted norm in international security and international relations. Most countries perceive global nuclear disarmament and non-proliferation as being inseparable in principle, although there is disagreement among countries on the ultimate objective of non-proliferation. Most countries generally want non-proliferation to be a transitional arrangement before total nuclear disarmament, which at present is a desirable though distant goal. The classical bargain for balancing the two has tilted in favour of non-proliferation.
K. Subrahmanyam, who passed away on 2 February 2011, has been hailed as one of India's leading strategic thinkers. Having joined the Indian Administrative Service (IAS) in 1950, his career graph turned out to be unique. He was one of those rare bureaucrats who came to be recognised more as a strategist than as a typical government official.