India’s global policy strategy is on the verge of major changes. Non-alignment as a cornerstone of foreign policy has become outdated given the power shifts in a multipolar world, especially through the emergence of BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa), which has put India in the position of being perceived as a potential new global player.

• Herbert Wulf , Tobias Debiel |
• January 2015 |
• Strategic Analysis

After nearly 30 years in power, the Hosni Mubarak regime in Egypt, considered by many to be the strongest in the Arab world, collapsed suddenly in February 2011 after a mere 18 days of street protests. In this article, we try to explain the puzzling collapse of the Mubarak regime using regime transition theory. We argue that the Mubarak regime’s collapse came about as a result of four key developments, none of which were sufficient to cause the regime’s collapse, but when coalesced together exposed the regime’s lack of coercive and persuasive powers, thereby hastening its demise.

• Kirsten Henderson , Rajat Ganguly |
• January 2015 |
• Strategic Analysis

The growing international influence of so-called emerging powers has had a major impact on global governance, leading to new challenges for established and emerging powers alike. This contribution outlines the expectations of established powers and the debates on the state of global governance in the field of International Relations, as well as the positions and policies of emerging powers.

• Sandra Destradi , Cord Jakobeit |
• January 2015 |
• Strategic Analysis

This article examines how the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) conflict management process in the South China Sea (SCS) has been conducted and whether the ASEAN way can effectively manage the dispute, in which China is a prime and important actor. It argues that rising tensions in the South China Sea are a direct result of the changed balance of power in the region given the asymmetry between China and ASEAN members. China has taken advantage of ASEAN efforts to develop a code of conduct that is premised on the ASEAN way.

• Munmun Majumdar |
• January 2015 |
• Strategic Analysis

Transit traffic on the Northern Sea Route (NSR) has increased considerably in the last few years, in relative terms. There is no clear pattern of transit cargo on the NSR and little indication that cargo owners or shipping companies have committed themselves to use of this sea route for the longer term. An important exception to this picture is the Yamal LNG (liquefied natural gas) project, which will be based on year-round use of the NSR. Administrative procedures have improved and escort fees have become competitive, but are not transparent.

• Arlid Moe |
• November 2014 |
• Strategic Analysis

In his Murmansk speech in 1987, Gorbachev proposed the Arctic as the shortest sea route linking Europe to the Far East and the Pacific Ocean, triggering a new perspective on the region.1 Since then, the 1991 Arctic Environmental Protection Strategy (AEPS), referred to as the Finnish Initiative, has been created as a multilateral, non-binding agreement among Arctic states to protect the environment by monitoring, assessment, emergency preparedness/response, and conservation of the Arctic zone.

• Jong Deog Kim |
• November 2014 |
• Strategic Analysis

Building on stakeholder management theory, this article examines the salience of Asian stakes in three key areas of Arctic governance: management and use of natural resources; shipping; and environmental protection. The Asian states that are now permanent observers in the Arctic Council have significant stakes in Arctic governance, but their salience varies considerably across these issue areas.

• Olav Schram Stokke |
• November 2014 |
• Strategic Analysis

For nearly a quarter of the past century a series of notable changes have taken place in the Arctic. All of them, whether political, economical, environmental or climate-related, inevitably had an impact on regional and global governance. This commentary mainly focuses on the role of China in Arctic affairs in the context of global change and global governance.

• Ye Jiang |
• November 2014 |
• Strategic Analysis

The Arctic Ocean is melting. Essentially, this means that new sea routes will open up for international navigation, and large resources, especially oil and gas, lying underneath the frozen ice will become more accessible and exploitable. Therefore, in the emerging contemporary debates concerning the Arctic, two important questions are raised: what is the legal regime that applies to navigation in new shipping routes that will open up with the melting of Arctic ice and what is the legal regime that governs the exploitation of the vast oil and gas resources?

• H.P. Rajan |
• November 2014 |
• Strategic Analysis

South Korea is not a traditional Arctic state, but it has several key interests in the region. This article explores the sources of those interests and the country’s commercial activities in the Arctic in the areas of shipping, shipbuilding and hydrocarbons. Since the country’s polar interests transcend commerce, however, attention is also paid to the importance of science and research and development in Korean culture.

• Mia M. Bennett |
• November 2014 |
• Strategic Analysis