The thrice postponed Afghan parliamentary and provincial council elections are finally over. But, is the Bonn-mandated political process over? With the US intent on cutting down its troop levels in Afghanistan this year, is the ‘war on terror’ in Afghanistan also over? It is being said that the Bonn process has concluded with the September 18, 2005 elections. If so, then it is pertinent to examine the end-result of the four-year political process and the recently concluded elections.

• Vishal Chandra |
• October 2005 |
• Strategic Analysis

Much of the current debate on India’s decision to evolve a set of agreements with the United States and engage the international nuclear technology control regimes in order to promote civilian nuclear cooperation unfortunately has not focused on some of the key questions involved and the available options before the country. Clearly, the country needs to take decisions from a subset of options that are i) politically feasible and ii) most desirable/least undesirable from the viewpoint of national interests.

• G. Balachandran |
• October 2005 |
• Strategic Analysis

Prime Minister Manmohan Singh’s visit to Moscow from December 4-6, 2005 highlights the continued importance of Indo-Russian cooperation in a changing geopolitical scenario. Beginning with President Vladimir Putin’s first visit to India in October 2000, bilateral summits between the Indian Prime Minister and the Russian President, alternatively in each other’s capital, have become an annual feature. In contrast, President Putin’s predecessor, President Boris Yeltsin visited India only once, in January 1993.

• Jyotsna Bakshi |
• October 2005 |
• Strategic Analysis

Nuclear transfers to a non-nuclear weapon state (NNWS) are conditioned on IAEA safeguards on all current and future peaceful nuclear activities, what are called the full-scope safeguards (FSS) or comprehensive safeguards. Since India is a NNWS according to the NPT definition, the NSG Guidelines as currently implemented would, therefore, invoke FSS if India seeks nuclear technology or nuclear power plants – even on a turnkey basis – or nuclear fuel from any NSG membercountry.

• R. Ramachandran |
• October 2005 |
• Strategic Analysis

Niall Ferguson, Colossus: The Rise and Fall of the American Empire (Penguin Books, New York, 2005), pp. 386.

• Deba R. Mohanty |
• October 2005 |
• Strategic Analysis

The 18 July Bush-Manmohan Agreement is currently being implemented, in bits and pieces. At the time of the signing of the agreement it was stated by different officials that both governments would proceed to unilaterally implement the provisions that pertained to them and there would be no expectations of reciprocity.

• Raja Menon |
• October 2005 |
• Strategic Analysis

Different views have been expressed by the American non-proliferation lobbyists on possible loss or gain from the Indo-US nuclear agreement. Would the agreement complicate global non-proliferation efforts as the critics argue or would it lead to a stronger front to deal with emerging non-proliferation challenges? To answer these questions it is necessary to examine the merits of the arguments put forward by the US non-proliferation lobby carefully.

• Rajesh Kumar Mishra |
• October 2005 |
• Strategic Analysis

Bangladesh’s relations with India are multi-dimensional - ideological, political and also economic. An extreme sense of distrust, insecurity and perceived domination by India has shaped Bangladesh’s foreign policy in recent years. It at the same time, hesitant and finds it uncomfortable to function within a bilateral parameter. Whether it is trade, export of gas, provision of transit or the water issue, Bangladesh has argued for multilateral arrangements.

• Smruti S. Pattanaik |
• July 2005 |
• Strategic Analysis

Since the events of March 1971, Bangladesh has seldom been free from violence. While much of the recent attention revolves around religious extremism and militancy, political violence, as this paper argues, is a larger problem for Bangladesh. At every level of society, Bangladesh has had to confront with acts of violence. Lack of governance impedes the polity from effectively controlling violence, organised and unorganised, against different sections of society.

• Sreeradha Datta |
• July 2005 |
• Strategic Analysis

Understanding the inner dynamics influencing the ongoing process of economic reform in China, especially the flexibility achieved by government bureaux is important for strategic policy makers in India. The brief study seeks to determine the relationships of dominance, correspondence, and contradictions as well as the direction of influence, the sequencing between government bureaux, and the end results of their joint operations by applying the micro-macro linkage approach.

• Raviprasad Narayanan |
• July 2005 |
• Strategic Analysis