West Asia is at strategic crossroads today. Dramatic changes are taking place in domestic and
regional political environments in most of the countries of the region. Despite imperative need for
peace and stability, the region continues to slip into deeper conflicts and instability; the
emergence of new non-state actors and increasing violence have added to the existing problems and
challenges leading to an uncertain future.

The West Asian region continues to be in a state of flux for more than four years since the
beginning of the Arab Spring. The pace as well as nature of transition in the countries which
witnessed regime change during this period has been different but all these countries have
witnessed unprecedented violence and mayhem. Moreover, there has been a clear lack of consensus
among different groups struggling for power about the future roadmap for their countries. Chaos
and confusion continues unabated as leaders, parties and people ponder over the probable
alternatives available to them. The current trends— involving widespread use of force,
increasing violence, failure of the state mechanisms, humanitarian crises, spread of terrorism,
growing sectarian conflict, intervention by regional and extra-regional players and changing
regional geopolitics— are not encouraging.

Ideology combined with popular aspirations for liberty, dignity and equality played an important
role in the beginning but the absence of viable alternative mechanisms and incapacity of states
to manage the resulting disorder have led to further escalation of the conflict. The resolution
of various intra-state conflicts seems like a distant dream. Ideological differences are, in
many cases, clearly evident in providing stimulus to conflicts within as well as among states.
Ideological conflicts, in the absence of a democratic order, tend to give rise to an atmosphere
of intolerance and provide an impetus for violence. Ironically, such violence is legitimized as
being sanctioned by the very ideologies that are in contention.

In the West Asian region, the ideological differences stem primarily from different
interpretations of Islam by different schools of thought within Islam. The assertion of the
“Takfiri” strain within the fold of Sunni sectarian version of Islam— which regards people from
other sects as apostates and fit for physical elimination— has made violence inevitable. The
appearance of Da’esh or Islamic State of Iraq and Syria (ISIS or IS) points to this reality and
expansion of its ideology beyond is a matter of concern for all the stakeholders.

The mixture of ideology and geopolitics has also hampered peace building in the region and
impacted inter-state relations adversely. An example of this is ideological differences among
Sunnis and Shias assuming the shape of a regional conflict between the Shia- and Sunni-dominated
states in the region. These differences were always there in the region, but the ongoing
political turmoil has sharpened these divisions— due to unthinking manipulation of these fault
lines by competing elites in these countries in their quest for power. Ideological differences
have slowly and steadily escalated into major sectarian conflicts throughout the region. Saudi
Arabia and Iran are now perceived to be representing Sunni and Shia interests respectively
though the other countries have also been playing their part in the ideological competition. The
sectarian conflict has been witnessed in the form of proxy wars in places like Syria, Iraq,
Yemen etc. with Riyadh and Tehran supporting the opposite forces.

While the peoples’ aspirations remain unaddressed, their attention is diverted to the ideological
competition. The rise of Islamists in Tunisia and Egypt by electoral means indicated popular
acceptance of political Islam as an alternative to existing political systems in the region.
This created a political tremor in the region and raised the level of expectations of leaders
advocating different ideological positions in the region such as Wahhabism, Salafism etc. The
success of Muslim Brotherhood in Egypt and its continuation in power for a year unleashed
political Islam as a potent force in the entire region. The subsequent military intervention in
Egypt leading to the end of Islamist rule— rather than reversing the trend— turned the attention
away from a democratic alternative and galvanised an armed movement in favour of rule by one
ideology or other.

In the regional security paradigm, the emergence of the Islamic State (IS) has become a major
threat to regional peace and stability. The declaration of a ‘Caliphate’ over an area carved out
from the geographical spaces of Iraq and Syria shows a dangerous trend that has the potential
for changing the entire political landscape of the region. While some countries of the region
are reluctantly fighting against it, the IS continues to spread its reach and ideology to other
countries in the region. Besides, the Al Qaeda continues to grow in Yemen where it finds a
suitable environment for growth in the absence of a strong central authority and a weak security
apparatus. These developments not only pose a long-term threat to the regional security but also
to the world at large since citizens of many countries outside the region have since joined IS.

Signing of the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), colloquially called as Iranian Nuclear
Deal, on 14 July 2015 is another important development which is likely to have its impact on the
regional strategic landscape. With the sanctions likely to be lifted gradually, the deal has the
potential to change the regional balance of power with Iran realising its full potential. That
is unlikely to be received well by countries like Saudi Arabia and Israel. Heightened
perceptions of mutual insecurity among leading countries in the region can give rise to
increasing defence expenditure, arms race and continued proxy wars. With the nuclear deal
signed, the GCC countries are already concerned about its security implications for them. Though
the GCC countries have been assured by the US of continued security engagement with them, their
apprehensions, nevertheless, remain high.

Among the countries of West Asia there is a complete absence of consensus over the ways to
resolve major conflicts in the region or to combat and neutralize the threat posed by IS.
Rather, the regional powers remain polarized and are intentionally or unintentionally fuelling
the conflicts. This is witnessed most prominently in Iraq, Syria and Yemen. The differences have
both political and ideological undertones, thus drawing them away from reaching any consensus
and thereby making it even more difficult to find a solution.

The most emblematic feature of the regional scenario of the recent past has been increasing role
of Asian countries, particularly, that of India and China. Given Asia’s interest in and
involvement with the region, the security and stability of West Asia has become a vital
imperative for Asian countries. Simultaneously, the US interest in the region is perceived to be
declining and its policy approach towards the region seems to be undergoing significant change.
These new developments have led some regional experts to argue that there is an urgent need for
a re-constructing of the West Asian order based on trust, interdependence and a spirit of
tolerance and accommodation.

India has expressed its concerns about recent developments taking place in the region. The spread
of IS remains a major concern for India as some Indian youths have joined the IS. The capture of
some Indian citizens by the IS in Iraq and recently in Libya is also a matter of concern for
India. India has huge stakes involved in the region. Its energy dependence on the region,
increasing trade and commerce, safety of around seven million Indian citizens working in the
region are some of the major concerns for India.

The hydrocarbon resources of the region have always drawn attention of the international
community. The major Asian economies, both developed and still developing, have collectively
become the largest purchasers of hydrocarbons from the Gulf region. Their demands are projected
to keep increasing substantially in years to come. The Gulf region’s role as an energy supplier
for Asia will, therefore, continue to grow incrementally for the foreseeable future, even as
America’s and Europe’s requirements of oil and gas from the Gulf region are projected to
diminish significantly. Therefore, the impact of the conflicts in the region on oil prices
cannot be ignored. The current crisis has had some impact on the oil prices. A sudden spike in
crude oil prices was witnessed immediately after the outbreak of the protests in 2010-11. The
oil prices have moderated since then and may fall further in the short to medium term with Iran
likely to ramp up its oil production in coming months. Whereas this has helped India in reducing
its current account deficit and improving macro fundamentals of its economy for the moment, any
deterioration of security situation in the region may impact oil prices unpredictably in future.
Prolonged conflicts throughout the region have the potential to affect the production, supply as
well as the market prices of crude oil in the long run besides increasing the chances of sudden
spikes every now and then. Amid such a scenario, the politics among the countries over oil also
adds up to the existing uncertainty.

Against this backdrop, IDSA proposes to organise the Second Annual West Asia Conference on
January 19-20, 2016 to deliberate upon the above mentioned issues and trends which have emerged
in the region in recent times. The challenges likely to be faced by India due to the plausible
political, economic, and security scenarios in the region will also be discussed during the
conference. Besides, likely future trends and prospects for the region as also ideas that can
help in conflict management and possible ways of resolving regional disputes will also be
discussed. The conference will focus on the following issues:

Day – 1

• Changing Security Paradigm in the West Asian Region
• Conflicting Ideologies and their implications for the Region
• Resurgence and Spread of Extremism and Terrorism in West Asia: Rise of ISIS and its
  Impact

Day – 2

• Strategic Transformation in West Asia and Involvement of Extra-Regional
  Powers
• Energy and Changing Geopolitics of West Asia
• India and the region: Building Partnerships and Managing Challenges
• Future Trends and Prospects for Cooperation in the Region.

Day – 1, January 19, 2016

0945-1000hrs – Registration

1000 – 1115hrs – Session I (Part – A) Including Q&A

Changing Security Paradigm in the West Asian Region

Chair: Shri Talmiz Ahmad

Speakers:

• H.E. Ahmed Abderraouf Ounaïes, Former Minister of Foreign Affairs of the Republic of
  Tunisia.
• Shri M. J. Akbar, the Hon’ble Member of Parliament, Rajya Sabha, India.
• 3. H.E. Hadi Soleimanpour, Head of the Centre for International Research and Education
  (CIRE), affiliated to the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Tehran, Iran.

1130 – 1200hrs – Special Session

Welcome Remarks by Shri Jayant Prasad, Director General, IDSA.

Keynote
Address by Shri Mohammad Hamid Ansari, the Hon’ble Vice President of India.

Vote of Thanks by Brig Rumel Dahiya (Retd), Deputy Director General, IDSA.

1200 – 1215hrs High Tea

1215 – 1330 Session I (Part – B): Changing Security Paradigm in the West Asian
Region

Chair: Shri Rajiv Sikri

Speakers:

• Shri Rajendra M. Abhyankar was the Indian Ambassador to the European Union, Belgium, and
  Luxembourg
• H.E. Ahmed Al-Wahishi, Executive Director, Yemeni International Affairs’ Centre (YIAC),
  Yemen.
• Dr Meena Singh Roy, Research Fellow, Coordinator, West Asia Centre, Institute for Defence
  Studies and Analyses (IDSA), India.

1330-1430hrs Lunch Break

1430 – 1600hrs: Session II Conflicting Ideologies and their implications for the
region

Chair: Shri Zikrur Rahman

Speakers:

• Prof Amr Hamzawy, Department of Public Policy and Administration, American University,
  Cairo, Egypt.
• Dr Reza Eslami, Director Human Rights Department, Faculty of Law, Shahid Beheshti
  University, Tehran, Iran.
• Shri Talmiz Ahmad, Former Indian Ambassador to Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates,
  India.
• H.E. Thuraya Al-Arrayed, Member of Majlis Al Shura, Riyadh, Saudi Arabia.

1600-1615hrs Tea Break

1615 – 1800hrs: Session III Resurgence and Spread of Extremism and Terrorism in West
Asia: Rise of ISIS and its Impact

Chair: Shri Syed Asif Ibrahim

Speakers:

• H.E. Shaaban Bouthaina, Minister, Political and Media Advisor at the Syrian Presidency and
  Former Minister of Expatriates in Syria.
• H.E. Khalid Ebrahim Alfadhala, Chairman of Board of Trustees, Bahrain Centre for Strategic,
  International and Energy Studies, Bahrain.
• Dr Haytham Mouzahem, Executive Director and Editor-in-Chief at the Levant News, President,
  Beirut Centre for Middle East Studies, Lebanon.
• Dr Entifadh Kamal Qanbar, P.E, Chairman of the Iraqi Future Constitutional Party and
  Adviser to the Deputy President of the Iraqi Parliament, Baghdad, Iraq.
• Brig Rumel Dahiya (Retd), Deputy Director General, Institute for Defence Studies and
  Analyses (IDSA), India.

Day – 2, January 20, 2016

0930 to 1000hrs: Special Address by Shri Anil Wadhwa, Secretary (East), Ministry of
External Affairs, Government of India.

1000 to 1200hrs: Session IV Strategic Transformation in West Asia and Involvement of
Extra-Regional Powers

Chair: Shri Ranjit Gupta

Speakers:

• Dr Alexander Lukin, Department Head, Faculty of World Economy and International Affairs,
  School of International Affairs, National Research University Higher School of Economics,
  Moscow, Russia.
• Prof Franklin P. Lamb, Visiting Professor of International Law at Damascus University
  Faculty of Law, USA.
• Prof Mustafa Aydin, Rector, Kadir Has University, Istanbul, Turkey.
• Dr Jin Liangxiang, Research Fellow, Center for West Asian and African Studies, Shanghai
  Institute for International Studies, Shanghai, China.
• Brigadier General (Retd) Alain Lamballe Centre Français de Recherche sur le Renseignement,
  Paris, France.

1200 – 1215hrs Tea Break

1215 – 1330hrs: Session V Energy and Changing Geopolitics of West Asia

Chair: Commodore C. Uday Bhaskar (Retd)

Speakers:

• Dr Takeuchi Toshitaka, Osaka School of International Public Policy, Osaka University, Japan.
• Dr Jang Ji-Hyang, Research Fellow and the Director of Middle East and North Africa (MENA)
  Centre at the Asan Institute for Policy Studies, Seoul, Korea.
• Prof Girijesh Pant, Jawaharlal Nehru University, New Delhi, India.

1330 – 1430hrs Lunch Break

1430 – 1600hrs: Session VI India and the Region: Building Partnerships and Managing
challenges

Chair: Shri Sanjay Singh

Speakers:

• Prof Ebtesam Al-Ketbi, Founder and President of Emirates Policy Centre, member of GCC
  Council Advisory Board, and Professor of Political Science at UAE University, Abu Dhabi,
  UAE.
• Dr Khalid Al Ghailani, Minister, Plenipotentiary, Oman.
• Prof Ghanim Alnajjar, Professor of Political Science at Kuwait University and Chair of Arab
  Human Rights Fund.
• Prof Efraim Inbar, Director, The Begin-Sadat Centre for Strategic Studies (BESA), Bar-Ilan
  University, Tel Aviv, Israel.
• Dr C. Raja Mohan, Head – Strategic Studies & Distinguished Fellow, Observer Research
  Foundation, New Delhi, India.
• Prof Aswini Mohapatra, Jawaharlal Nehru University, New Delhi, India.

1600 – 1615hrs: Tea Break

1615 – 1800hrs: Session VII Future Trends and Prospects for Cooperation in the
Region

Chair: Shri Jayant Prasad

Panellists:

• H.E. Hadi Soleimanpour, Head of the Centre for International Research and Education (CIRE),
  affiliated to the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Tehran, Iran.
• Dr P.K. Pradhan, Associate Fellow, IDSA, India.
• Dr. Khaled Al-Hroub, Professor in Residence of the Faculty of Liberal Arts at North western
  University, Doha, Qatar.
• Prof P. R. Kumaraswamy, JNU, India.
• H. E. Thuraya Al-Arrayed, Member of Majlis Al Shura, Riyadh, Saudi Arabia.
• Dr N. Janardhan, Political Analyst based in the United Arab Emirates, India.
• Prof Ebtesam Al-Ketbi, Founder and President of Emirates Policy Centre, member of GCC
  Council Advisory Board, and Professor of Political Science at UAE University, Abu Dhabi,
  UAE.
• Prof Anwar Alam Department of International Relations, Faculty of Economics and
  Administrative Science, Zirve University, Kizilhisar Campus, Gaziantep, Turkey, India.