This article explores the drivers of North Korea and Iran’s nuclear aspirations and behaviour by employing the theoretical prisms of ‘security dilemma’, ‘regional security complex’ (RSC) and ‘social constructivism’. It argues that ideational values and interests are shaping Iranian and North Korean nuclear aspirations and behaviour. Conversely, the absence of positive inter-subjective understanding of the US and its allies regarding Iran and North Korea is influencing their nuclear non-proliferation policy towards these states.

• Shaheen Akhtar , Zulfiqar Khan
• September 2014
• Strategic Analysis

At first glance, there was no coherent regional and international response to the transitions triggered in the Arab world since December 2010 as external players, both regional and international, had to confront with unceasing alarm the rapidity of change threatening to unravel in critical Arab states. However, as events in the region progressed, a pattern emerged to the external responses, one that was as predictive as it was differentiated.

• Melissa Cyrill
• July 2014
• Strategic Analysis

The winter of 2011 was a dramatic period for air power in Mediterranean Europe and India. Operation Unified Protector (OUP), the successful North Atlantic Treaty Organisation (NATO) offensive aerial campaign that paved the way for a regime change in Libya, involved two platforms that had been shortlisted for the largest fighter aircraft deal of recent times.

• Arjun Subramaniam
• May 2014
• Strategic Analysis

Democracy has spread spontaneously and swiftly in an area of the world generally thought to be immune to political changes: West Asia and North Africa (WANA). An incident of common occurrence in Third World countries—a policeman extorting money from a fruit vendor—sparked this surge for democracy, which spread rapidly from the Mediterranean to the Red Sea in some two months. On December 17, 2010, a fruit vendor, Mohammed Razzack, set himself on fire to protest against a policeman extorting money from him.

• Bharat Wariavwalla
• May 2014
• Strategic Analysis

The conflict in Syria is inexorably turning into a quagmire as more entities get dragged into the sludge. From a hands-off policy to one of humanitarian support, the West has progressed to arming rebels, while Russia has shown that it is determined not to let down its ally by continuing arms shipments to the Assad regime.

• Manmohan Bahadur
• January 2014
• Strategic Analysis

The Arab Spring was ignited by an undeniable human security goal of achieving freedom from want, freedom from fear and freedom to live in dignity. This article analyses how human security concerns have figured in the Arab Spring and shaped its course.

• Mohammed Nuruzzaman
• January 2013
• Strategic Analysis

Since the Islamic Revolution, Iran and the United States have been locked in a bitter conflict. Although it has not yet degenerated into a war, as has been the case with some international conflicts, isolation of the Islamic government has become the basic objective of US foreign policy towards Iran. US policymakers maintain that economic sanctions can force the government of Iran to change its policy on many international issues.

• Mahnaz Zahirinejad
• January 2013
• Strategic Analysis

In Afghanistan, the third Great Game is still on. The end of US–NATO combat operations in Afghanistan by the end of 2014 will be read by many as ‘Obama’s Vietnam’, but the retention of a small number of troops and several military facilities by the US in that country will be a source of worry for countries such as Russia, Iran and Pakistan who are concerned about US motives and moves in regard to the region, especially Central Asia’s energy resources which are already a target of international competition.

• J.K. Baral
• November 2013
• Strategic Analysis

In more than three decades, ever since the Islamic-oriented National Order Party was formed in 1969, Turkish politics has been analysed by many in terms of two straitjacketed views: Islamists trying to capture power on the one hand, and on the other hand the secularists or the state elite, with the help of the military, struggling to keep the country’s political orientation towards the West to protect Turkey as a secular state. This image of Turkey has created some confusion among strategic analysts abroad in understanding Turkey and its policies.

• Mehmet Ozkan
• September 2013
• Strategic Analysis

While oil and gas industries are already well established in Siberia and Alaska, the melting of the Arctic ice cap is opening up new areas of the High North to hydrocarbon exploration. According to the US Geological Survey (USGS), the Arctic is expected to hold about 22 per cent of the world's undiscovered, technically recoverable conventional oil and natural gas resources (about 13 per cent of undiscovered oil reserves, 30 per cent of natural gas, and 20 per cent of natural gas liquids).

• Åshild Kolås
• July 2013
• Strategic Analysis

Turkey is facing serious challenges in the wake of the Russian invasion of Ukraine. Its response to the conflict could have far-reaching implications for its struggling economy, damaged relations with the US and EU, its complex partnership with Russia, and for the regional security architecture in the Black Sea.

• Md. Muddassir Quamar
• March 14, 2022
• Comment

With the failure of moderates’ Western outreach in the aftermath of US withdrawal from the JCPOA, the conservatives, now in power in Iran, are looking for a long-term partnership with Russia which would bring stability in their shared neighbourhood, geoeconomic opportunities and also weaken the influence of moderates and reformists.

• Deepika Saraswat
• February 24, 2022
• Issue Brief

The recent Houthi attacks on the UAE have widened the ambit of the ongoing war in Yemen, and are likely to prolong the instability in and around Yemen and hinder the regional and international efforts towards establishing peace in the country.

• Prasanta Kumar Pradhan
• February 03, 2022
• Comment

While India may not be a major actor in Central Asia yet it remains an important vector in the regional calculus of the Central Asian Republics. India’s multi-alignment should hold it in good stead in navigating the opportunities and challenges in a region which lies at a proverbial stone’s throw from New Delhi.

• Rajorshi Roy
• January 27, 2022
• Comment

Iran’s readiness for restoring diplomatic relations with Saudi Arabia after six years since Riyadh cut ties in January 2016 is part of broader revival of diplomacy in the region after a decade of intense geopolitical competition and proxy wars involving Saudi Arabia and its Arab allies and Turkey & Iran.

• Deepika Saraswat
• January 10, 2022
• Comment

Prolonged political crisis, social unrest, pre-existing economic misery, and outbreak of a diplomatic crisis between Lebanon and the Gulf countries have left Lebanon in a debilitated state. Systemic reforms to tackle the economic, political, diplomatic and humanitarian challenges, are the need of the hour.

• Jatin Kumar
• January 01, 2022
• Comment

The increased diplomatic activity in the Middle East (West Asia) with regional leaders engaging each other at various levels and forums, in spite of the continued regional power competition, ideological misgivings and threat perceptions, is a pleasing as well as a puzzling development. For India, this is an opportunity to enhance its diplomatic and economic engagements with the regional countries.

• Md. Muddassir Quamar
• November 22, 2021
• Comment

The new government in Iraq is likely to face challenges in addressing the issues of political instability, economic crisis, inflation, unemployment, among others. It will also have to maintain a balance between the US, the Arab allies, Iran and Turkey, the main external actors active in Iraq.

• Nagapushpa Devendra
• November 15, 2021
• Issue Brief

The Baghdad Conference is significant for a variety of reasons including Iraq’s attempt to emerge as a regional mediator and reduce tensions between Iran and Saudi Arabia on the one hand, and Turkey and Egypt–UAE, on the other. However, at the core of it, the event was aimed at reviving Iraq’s economic and political fortunes.

• Md. Muddassir Quamar
• October 05, 2021
• Comment

Yemeni crisis has been a challenge for Saudi Arabia’s standing and reputation as the leader of the Arab and the Islamic world. It is caught between the resilience of the Houthis to sustain their fight, and the growing cost of war and the allegations of innocents being victims of their air strikes.

• Prasanta Kumar Pradhan
• September 13, 2021
• Comment